MPWR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPWR - Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
$1423.76
-114.12 (-7.42%)
▼
5d:
-13.83%
30d:
-8.81%
90d:
+32.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MPWR is down 13.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MPWR is down 13.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1476.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$916.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPWR is currently trading at $1423.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1490.07 to $1628.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 46.9) is in line with its historical norms (48.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1405.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1789.23 (+25.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1405.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1789.23 (+25.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$1490.07 -
$1628.23
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.7% below Wall St target ($1789.23)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1490.07 -
$1628.23
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1405.00
Resistance Level
$1666.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
46.94
Wall Street Target
$1789.23
(+25.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.5%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
46.9 vs 48.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1406.67
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$1389.79
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$1373.12
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 47→49)
$1424.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 46.9, Growth: 26.3%)
$2866.52
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 26.3%)
$1330.12
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 26.3%)
$1130.61
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (64x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (47x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 63.69 | Forward EPS (Implied): $22.35
Bull Case
$1719.19
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 66.9
Base Case
$1423.76
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 63.7
Bear Case
$1089.18
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 57.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 46.9 to 48.7
Stabilization Target:
$1477.22
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 3:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Saria Tseng
SELL
8963 shares
2026-04-08
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SELL
7636 shares
2026-04-06
Maurice Sciammas
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30 shares
2026-04-01
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