MPWR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPWR - Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
$1339.08
5.27 (0.40%)
▲
5d:
+0.77%
30d:
-6.9%
90d:
-17.95%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MPWR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MPWR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1489.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$924.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPWR is currently trading at $1339.08, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1296.37 to $1434.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 43.8) is in line with its historical norms (48.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPWR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1231.00, while resistance sits at $1419.92.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (28th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1776.92 (+32.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPWR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1231.00, while resistance sits at $1419.92.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (28th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1776.92 (+32.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$1296.37 -
$1434.93
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
28th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 28th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.7% below Wall St target ($1776.92)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1296.37 -
$1434.93
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$149.69
(11.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1231.00
Resistance Level
$1419.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.77
Wall Street Target
$1776.92
(+32.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.5%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
43.8 vs 48.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1296.23
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$1254.75
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$1214.60
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→48)
$1337.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.8, Growth: 26.5%)
$2713.44
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 26.5%)
$1289.95
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 26.5%)
$1096.46
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (55x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (44x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 55.25 | Forward EPS (Implied): $24.24
Bull Case
$1616.94
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 58.0
Base Case
$1339.08
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 55.3
Bear Case
$1024.40
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 49.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 43.8 to 48.2
Stabilization Target:
$1474.47
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 27, 2026 7:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Saria Tseng
SELL
8963 shares
2026-04-08
Saria Tseng
SELL
7636 shares
2026-04-06
Maurice Sciammas
SELL
30 shares
2026-04-01
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Advanced MPWR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPWR price and gamma walls.
