MPWR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPWR - Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
$1312.00
6.35 (0.49%)
▲
5d:
-3.01%
30d:
-12.46%
90d:
-6.47%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MPWR appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.8% annual earnings decline despite 40% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MPWR appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.8% annual earnings decline despite 40% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1484.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$921.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPWR is currently trading at $1312.00, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1304.80 to $1517.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 43.0) compared to its historical average (48.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPWR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1231.00, while resistance sits at $1407.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1789.23 (+36.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPWR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $1231.00, while resistance sits at $1407.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1789.23 (+36.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$1304.80 -
$1517.23
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
31th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.4% below Wall St target ($1789.23)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1304.80 -
$1517.23
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$158.45
(12.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1231.00
Resistance Level
$1407.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.03
Wall Street Target
$1789.23
(+36.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.5%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
43.0 vs 48.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1262.14
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$1214.18
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$1168.04
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 43→48)
$1311.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.0, Growth: 26.6%)
$2659.51
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.0, Growth: 26.6%)
$1298.48
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.9, Growth: 26.6%)
$1103.70
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (56x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (43x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 56.18 | Forward EPS (Implied): $23.35
Bull Case
$1584.24
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 59.0
Base Case
$1312.00
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 56.2
Bear Case
$1003.68
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 50.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 43.0 to 48.3
Stabilization Target:
$1472.61
(+12.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 18, 2026 4:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Saria Tseng
SELL
8963 shares
2026-04-08
Saria Tseng
SELL
7636 shares
2026-04-06
Maurice Sciammas
SELL
30 shares
2026-04-01
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Advanced MPWR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPWR price and gamma walls.
