Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPWR - Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
$1167.93
-115.39 (-8.99%)
âŧ
5d:
-6.51%
30d:
-13.84%
90d:
-12.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MPWR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -10.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MPWR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -10.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1717.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1066.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPWR is currently trading at $1167.93, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1207.53 to $1402.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 33.1) compared to its historical average (45.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 85.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPWR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1147.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1813.13 (+55.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPWR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1147.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1813.13 (+55.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$1207.53 -
$1402.91
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MPWR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 55.2% below Wall St target ($1813.13)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1207.53 -
$1402.91
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1147.17
Resistance Level
$1401.76
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.11
Wall Street Target
$1813.13
(+55.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
47.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
85.8%
Profit Margin
24.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
33.1 vs 45.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1051.14
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$946.02
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$851.42
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33â45)
$1167.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.1, Growth: 28.0%)
$2450.46
(+110%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 28.0%)
$1469.68
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 28.0%)
$1249.23
(+7%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 38.76 | Forward EPS (Implied): $30.13
Bull Case
$1410.28
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 40.7
Base Case
$1167.93
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 38.8
Bear Case
$893.47
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 34.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 33.1 to 45.4
Stabilization Target:
$1601.29
(+37.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 7:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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