MRCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MRCY - Mercury Systems Inc.

ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS & ACCESSORIES
$91.36
-2.87 (-3.05%) ▼
5d: -17.78%
30d: -14.09%
90d: -5.19%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Protect Your MRCY Gains
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026 0d
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $113.91 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 6.1/10

Get Alerted When MRCY Hits Your Target Price

Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move

You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free No spam, ever Unsubscribe anytime

Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

Loading chart...

Loading historical data...

💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MRCY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.33
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.53
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MRCY is currently trading at $91.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.25 to $109.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 60.6) is in line with its historical norms (59.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $91.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.22 (+16.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $97.25 - $109.56
Company Quality Score 61/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 68.6%

Protect Your Profits

Holding MRCY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($106.22)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with 11.5% revenue growth
  • NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (42/100) — watch for confirmation
  • CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-17.8%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $97.25 - $109.56
Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $91.25
Resistance Level $115.38
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 60.65
Wall Street Target $106.22 (+16.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -34.7%
Profit Margin -1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History +0.4% premium
PE vs Historical 60.7 vs 59.9 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +0.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $91.73 (+0%)
2-Year Target $92.09 (+1%)
3-Year Target $92.46 (+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 61→60) PE COMPRESSION $91.31 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 60.7, Growth: 40.3%) $252.33 (+176%)
Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 40.3%) $83.50 (-9%)
Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 40.3%) $70.97 (-22%)
Share & Embed Analysis

Found this analysis useful? Share it with your community or embed the live chart on your blog.

Tweet Reddit
bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.
Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David E Farnsworth SELL 3625 shares 2026-04-16
Jana Partners Management… SELL 100899 shares 2026-03-04
Jana Partners Management… SELL 168648 shares 2026-03-03

Unlock Insider Activity

See real-time buying/selling by company executives for MRCY.

Create Free Account

Already have an account? Log In

Top Rated Aerospace & Defense Stocks

Top-rated stocks in Aerospace & Defense by analyst ratings.

Stock Analyst Consensus Analyst Target Tradestie Score
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc
STRONG BUY
25 analysts
$335 52 HOLD
BA
The Boeing Company
STRONG BUY
27 analysts
$275 44 HOLD
TDG
Transdigm Group Incorpor…
STRONG BUY
23 analysts
$1523 53 HOLD
GE
GE Aerospace
STRONG BUY
20 analysts
$405 50 HOLD
RTX
RTX Corporation
BUY
24 analysts
$232 43 HOLD

Advanced MRCY Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MRCY price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for MRCY

MRCY Technical Chart MRCY Price Prediction MRCY Earnings Date MRCY Investment Advisor MRCY Fair Price Analyzer MRCY Options Advisor MRCY Options Chain MRCY Options Analysis MRCY Competitors
Live Trades
From trading groups
Loading trades...
View All Live Trades See Trader Consensus & Signals