Mercury Systems (MRCY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRCY - Mercury Systems Inc.
$84.87
0.80 (0.95%)
▲
5d:
+3.27%
30d:
+2.79%
90d:
-31.04%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MRCY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MRCY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.33
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRCY is currently trading at $84.87, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.50 to $87.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 56.3) is in line with its historical norms (59.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MRCY scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.70 (+36.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MRCY scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $115.70 (+36.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$81.50 -
$87.12
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
9th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MRCY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 9th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.3% below Wall St target ($115.70)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$81.50 -
$87.12
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.14
(8.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.61
Resistance Level
$87.23
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
56.34
Wall Street Target
$115.70
(+36.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-96.7%
Profit Margin
-3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
56.3 vs 59.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.43
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$82.01
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$80.61
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 56→59)
$84.85
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 56.3, Growth: 40.3%)
$234.40
(+176%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 40.3%)
$84.87
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 40.3%)
$72.14
(-15%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 56.3 to 59.3
Stabilization Target:
$89.32
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David E Farnsworth
SELL
3625 shares
2026-04-16
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Advanced MRCY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MRCY price and gamma walls.
