MRCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRCY - Mercury Systems Inc.
$105.79
8.69 (8.95%)
▲
5d:
+1.92%
30d:
-16.18%
90d:
+34.68%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MRCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MRCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRCY is currently trading at $105.79, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.20 to $115.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 62.8) is in line with its historical norms (59.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: MRCY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: MRCY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$96.20 -
$115.50
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
20th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 20th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+8.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($103.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with 11.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.20 -
$115.50
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$13.19
(12.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$89.92
Resistance Level
$108.33
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
62.82
Wall Street Target
$103.75
(+6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.7%
Profit Margin
-1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
62.8 vs 59.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$99.04
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$101.02
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$103.04
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 63→59)
PE COMPRESSION
$97.11
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 62.8, Growth: 43.5%)
$286.86
(+195%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 43.5%)
$94.67
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 43.5%)
$80.47
(-17%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David E Farnsworth
SELL
3625 shares
2026-04-16
Jana Partners Management…
SELL
100899 shares
2026-03-04
Jana Partners Management…
SELL
168648 shares
2026-03-03
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Advanced MRCY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MRCY price and gamma walls.
