MRTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRTN - Marten Transport Ltd
$17.43
0.02 (0.11%)
▲
5d:
+1.1%
30d:
-4.65%
90d:
+24.86%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MRTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MRTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.16
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.35
9.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRTN is currently trading at $17.43, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.02 to $17.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.2) compared to its historical average (34.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRTN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRTN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$17.02 -
$17.84
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.02 -
$17.84
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.95
Resistance Level
$18.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.23
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(+6.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.1%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.2 vs 34.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.16
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$14.98
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$13.88
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→34)
$17.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.2, Growth: 132.7%)
$58.83
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 132.7%)
$47.04
(+170%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 132.7%)
$39.99
(+129%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 17.64 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.99
Bull Case
$21.02
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 18.5
Base Case
$17.41
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$13.32
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.2 to 34.2
Stabilization Target:
$21.89
(+25.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 5:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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