MTDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTDR - MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
$53.11
1.77 (3.45%)
▲
5d:
+6.52%
30d:
-3.28%
90d:
-11.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTDR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTDR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$103.78
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.44
17.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTDR is currently trading at $53.11, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.75 to $53.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (8.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: MTDR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.26 (+34.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: MTDR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.26 (+34.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$49.75 -
$53.64
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.2% below Wall St target ($71.26)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.75 -
$53.64
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.93
Resistance Level
$56.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.23
Wall Street Target
$71.26
(+34.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Profit Margin
13.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 8.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.70
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$44.66
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$40.95
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$53.21
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.1%)
$268.20
(+405%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 13.1%)
$76.76
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 13.1%)
$65.25
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.88
Bull Case
$112.95
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$102.68
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$34.91
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.2 to 8.1
Stabilization Target:
$69.01
(+29.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Joseph Wm Foran
BUY
468 shares
2026-02-27
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