MTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTG - MGIC Investment Corp.
$30.58
0.54 (1.80%)
▲
5d:
+1.93%
30d:
+8.32%
90d:
+16.45%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTG is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MTG is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.45
Based on 3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTG is currently trading at $30.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.99 to $29.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (8.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.53, while resistance sits at $31.89.
Market Sentiment: MTG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.53, while resistance sits at $31.89.
Market Sentiment: MTG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$27.99 -
$29.85
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($30.60)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.99 -
$29.85
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.53
Resistance Level
$31.89
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.24
Wall Street Target
$30.60
(+0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Profit Margin
59.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.68
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$32.82
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$34.00
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$30.53
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 2.8%)
$74.58
(+144%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 2.8%)
$33.26
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 2.8%)
$28.27
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.14
Bull Case
$34.83
(+16%)
Analyst growth 4.0%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$31.66
(+5%)
Market implied 4.0%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$20.71
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy J Mattke
SELL
139202 shares
2026-04-02
Salvatore A Miosi
SELL
10931 shares
2026-04-01
Paula C Maggio
SELL
20000 shares
2026-02-06
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