MUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUR - Murphy Oil Corp.
$36.02
1.60 (4.65%)
▲
5d:
-1.18%
30d:
-4.63%
90d:
-4.23%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.14
Based on -2.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $36.02, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.87 to $39.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (14.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.40 (+23.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.40 (+23.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$35.87 -
$39.65
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.3% below Wall St target ($44.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.87 -
$39.65
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.19
Resistance Level
$40.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.31
Wall Street Target
$44.40
(+23.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.1%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 14.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.42
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$29.18
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$26.26
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→15)
$36.92
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -9.2%)
$56.86
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: -9.2%)
$26.93
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: -9.2%)
$22.89
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 11.00 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.27
Bull Case
$43.49
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$36.02
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$27.56
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 14.5
Stabilization Target:
$50.64
(+40.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+40.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel R Hanchera
SELL
47320 shares
2026-03-11
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