MZTI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MZTI - The Marzetti Company Common Stock
$111.63
-1.26 (-1.12%)
▼
5d:
-3.81%
30d:
+4.77%
90d:
-1.01%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 25, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: MZTI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.6% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: MZTI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.6% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$173.54
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$107.75
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MZTI is currently trading at $111.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $107.73 to $114.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.5) compared to its historical average (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MZTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $159.40 (+42.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MZTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $159.40 (+42.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$107.73 -
$114.63
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.8% below Wall St target ($159.40)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$107.73 -
$114.63
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$111.22
Resistance Level
$118.42
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.47
Wall Street Target
$159.40
(+42.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.4%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 18.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$105.38
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$99.48
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$93.91
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$111.73
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.0%)
$177.53
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 7.0%)
$136.80
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 7.0%)
$116.28
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.16
Bull Case
$145.51
(+30%)
Analyst growth 17.2%, PE expands to 20.2
Base Case
$132.28
(+19%)
Market implied 17.2%, PE stable at 18.3
Bear Case
$76.77
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$132.81
(+19.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MZTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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