NEXA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NEXA - Nexa Resources S.A. Common Shares
$13.78
-1.03 (-6.95%)
▼
5d:
+4.31%
30d:
+13.79%
90d:
+16.29%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NEXA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NEXA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.42
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.47
43.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NEXA is currently trading at $13.78, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.39 to $14.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.9) compared to its historical average (6.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 653.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NEXA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.02, while resistance sits at $16.25. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: NEXA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NEXA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.02, while resistance sits at $16.25. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: NEXA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$12.39 -
$14.06
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
4th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 4th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.0%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($12.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.39 -
$14.06
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.35
(9.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.02
Resistance Level
$16.25
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.88
Wall Street Target
$12.75
(-7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
41.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
653.7%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.9 vs 6.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.40
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.16
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.05
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→6)
$16.06
(+17%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.0%)
$136.98
(+894%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.9, Growth: 21.0%)
$24.39
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.3, Growth: 21.0%)
$20.73
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$32.58
(+136%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.3
Base Case
$29.62
(+115%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.4
Bear Case
$10.07
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.9 to 6.2
Stabilization Target:
$22.03
(+59.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+59.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 8:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NEXA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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