NFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFG - National Fuel Gas Co.
$77.07
0.95 (1.25%)
▲
5d:
+0.3%
30d:
-5.17%
90d:
-17.18%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$107.98
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFG is currently trading at $77.07, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.84 to $80.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $75.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.50 (+31.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $75.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.50 (+31.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$75.84 -
$80.50
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.7% below Wall St target ($101.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.84 -
$80.50
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.85
Resistance Level
$79.72
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.70
Wall Street Target
$101.50
(+31.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Profit Margin
27.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.37
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$73.72
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$72.09
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$77.31
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.0%)
$211.90
(+175%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 7.0%)
$94.36
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 7.0%)
$80.21
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.40
Bull Case
$89.91
(+17%)
Analyst growth 7.4%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$81.74
(+6%)
Market implied 7.4%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$51.76
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$82.64
(+7.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 6:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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