NFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFG - National Fuel Gas Co.
$82.76
0.45 (0.55%)
▲
5d:
+2.5%
30d:
+4.31%
90d:
-0.27%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.83
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFG is currently trading at $82.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.76 to $82.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NFG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NFG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$78.76 -
$82.00
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($91.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.9% growth with 1.1% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$78.76 -
$82.00
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.35
Resistance Level
$83.70
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.62
Wall Street Target
$91.00
(+10.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.6%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.50
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$84.26
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$85.01
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.45
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.5%)
$184.57
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 4.5%)
$94.55
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 4.5%)
$80.37
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.18
Bull Case
$98.27
(+19%)
Analyst growth 8.5%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$89.34
(+8%)
Market implied 8.5%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$55.97
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 12:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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