NFLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFLX - NetFlix Inc
$79.59
-0.55 (-0.69%)
▼
5d:
+1.83%
30d:
+15.53%
90d:
-10.87%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $74.14 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NFLX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NFLX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.86
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFLX is currently trading at $79.59, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.35 to $77.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.8) compared to its historical average (23.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $81.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NFLX scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.42 (+17.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $81.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NFLX scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.42 (+17.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$70.35 -
$77.23
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NFLX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($93.42)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.35 -
$77.23
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.57
Resistance Level
$81.16
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.84
Wall Street Target
$93.42
(+17.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
28.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.8 vs 23.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$76.33
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$73.20
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$70.20
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→24)
$79.82
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 6.5%)
$96.22
(+21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 6.5%)
$92.65
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 6.5%)
$78.75
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.28
Bull Case
$102.73
(+29%)
Analyst growth 16.4%, PE expands to 26.9
Base Case
$93.39
(+17%)
Market implied 16.4%, PE stable at 24.5
Bear Case
$54.55
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.8 to 23.7
Stabilization Target:
$90.50
(+13.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 1:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:42 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Spencer Adam Neumann
SELL
28630 shares
2026-04-02
Reed Hastings
SELL
420550 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
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Advanced NFLX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NFLX price and gamma walls.
