NFLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFLX - NetFlix Inc
$77.38
0.42 (0.55%)
▲
5d:
-4.79%
30d:
-13.38%
90d:
-15.65%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
23d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
Get Alerted When NFLX Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NFLX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.5% annual earnings decline despite 86% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NFLX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.5% annual earnings decline despite 86% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$122.40
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFLX is currently trading at $77.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.73 to $88.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.2) compared to its historical average (24.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 86.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.15 (+47.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFLX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $114.15 (+47.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$80.73 -
$88.11
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.5% below Wall St target ($114.15)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.73 -
$88.11
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.00
Resistance Level
$88.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.21
Wall Street Target
$114.15
(+47.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.4%
Profit Margin
28.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 24.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.35
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$67.65
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$63.25
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→25)
$77.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.6%)
$100.93
(+30%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.6%)
$93.66
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 6.6%)
$79.61
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$104.55
(+35%)
Analyst growth 23.5%, PE expands to 27.3
Base Case
$95.05
(+23%)
Market implied 23.5%, PE stable at 24.8
Bear Case
$52.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.2 to 24.7
Stabilization Target:
$94.56
(+22.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 22, 2026 6:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NFLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Spencer Adam Neumann
SELL
28630 shares
2026-04-02
Reed Hastings
SELL
420550 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-20
Top Rated Entertainment Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Entertainment by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
DIS
Walt Disney Company |
STRONG BUY
32 analysts |
$130 | 63 BUY |
|
ROKU
Roku Inc |
BUY
32 analysts |
$152 | 62 BUY |
|
LYV
Live Nation Entertainmen… |
STRONG BUY
23 analysts |
$185 | 63 BUY |
|
WBD
Warner Bros Discovery Inc |
BUY
27 analysts |
$30 | 53 HOLD |
|
TKO
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$234 | 60 HOLD |
Advanced NFLX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NFLX price and gamma walls.
