NL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NL - NL Industries, Inc.
$5.74
-0.19 (-3.20%)
▼
5d:
-1.2%
30d:
-3.37%
90d:
-4.33%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.43
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NL is currently trading at $5.74, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.78 to $6.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 551.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NL is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $5.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NL is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $5.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.78 -
$6.08
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.78 -
$6.08
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.59
Resistance Level
$6.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.58
Wall Street Target
$6.00
(+4.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
551.1%
Profit Margin
-21.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.65
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$5.56
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$5.47
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$5.73
(0%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$6.02
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 5:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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