NLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NLY - Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
$22.25
0.09 (0.38%)
▲
5d:
+0.02%
30d:
+2.84%
90d:
+4.78%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NLY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NLY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.83
Based on -23.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NLY is currently trading at $22.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.30 to $22.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.4) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 122.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.30 -
$22.07
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.23)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.30 -
$22.07
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.88
Resistance Level
$21.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.41
Wall Street Target
$24.23
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
48.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
122.5%
Profit Margin
87.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.03
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$21.89
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$21.76
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$22.02
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -51.6%)
$64.11
(+189%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: -51.6%)
$21.82
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: -51.6%)
$18.55
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$23.56
(+6%)
Analyst growth -3.6%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$21.42
(-3%)
Market implied -3.6%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$15.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$22.42
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven Francis Campbell
SELL
26491 shares
2026-02-25
Serena Wolfe
SELL
16536 shares
2026-02-18
Steven Francis Campbell
SELL
28225 shares
2026-02-18
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