NLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NLY - Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
$23.16
-0.13 (-0.56%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.73%
30d:
+3.81%
90d:
+7.07%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NLY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NLY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.20
17.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NLY is currently trading at $23.16, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.62 to $23.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3426.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$22.62 -
$23.31
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.23)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.62 -
$23.31
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.63
Resistance Level
$23.91
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.45
Wall Street Target
$24.23
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
479.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3426.0%
Profit Margin
90.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.07
(0%)
2-Year Target
$22.98
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$22.88
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7â8)
$23.04
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 86.6%)
$64.05
(+177%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 86.6%)
$23.77
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 86.6%)
$20.20
(-13%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.06
Bull Case
$19.62
(-15%)
Analyst growth -23.4%, PE expands to 6.3
Base Case
$17.84
(-23%)
Market implied -23.4%, PE stable at 5.7
Bear Case
$15.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$23.32
(+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 4:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven Francis Campbell
SELL
26491 shares
2026-02-25
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