NLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NLY - Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
$22.77
0.21 (0.91%)
▲
5d:
+2.51%
30d:
+5.11%
90d:
+8.1%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 25, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
25d
Get Alerted When NLY Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NLY is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NLY is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.83
Based on -23.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NLY is currently trading at $22.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.31 to $22.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NLY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.31 -
$22.19
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.23)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.31 -
$22.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.88
Resistance Level
$21.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.55
Wall Street Target
$24.23
(+7.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
48.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
122.5%
Profit Margin
87.4%
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.56
(0%)
2-Year Target
$22.56
(0%)
3-Year Target
$22.56
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.42
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -51.6%)
$64.11
(+184%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: -51.6%)
$22.21
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: -51.6%)
$18.88
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.11
Bull Case
$23.59
(+5%)
Analyst growth -3.9%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$21.45
(-5%)
Market implied -3.9%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$15.17
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 26, 2026 10:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:44 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven Francis Campbell
SELL
26491 shares
2026-02-25
Serena Wolfe
SELL
16536 shares
2026-02-18
Steven Francis Campbell
SELL
28225 shares
2026-02-18
Top Rated REIT - Mortgage Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Mortgage by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$13 | 64 BUY |
|
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trus… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$13 | 57 HOLD |
|
LADR
Ladder Capital Corp Clas… |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$12 | 59 HOLD |
|
EFC
Ellington Financial Inc. |
STRONG BUY
8 analysts |
$15 | 55 HOLD |
|
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage Inc |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$11 | 62 BUY |
