NMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMR - Nomura Holdings, Inc
$9.76
0.17 (1.77%)
▲
5d:
+1.56%
30d:
+4.83%
90d:
+25.61%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.12
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMR is currently trading at $9.76, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.96 to $9.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.9) compared to its historical average (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$8.96 -
$9.80
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($10.31)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.96 -
$9.80
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.11
Resistance Level
$9.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.86
Wall Street Target
$10.31
(+7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.0%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.97
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$10.37
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$10.79
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.56
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -10.7%)
$11.27
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: -10.7%)
$6.99
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: -10.7%)
$5.94
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.82
Bull Case
$9.68
(+1%)
Analyst growth -9.1%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$8.80
(-8%)
Market implied -9.1%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$6.58
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 3:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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