NMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMR - Nomura Holdings, Inc
$9.75
0.13 (1.35%)
▲
5d:
+3.5%
30d:
+12.2%
90d:
+15.93%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NMR trades at premium valuation expecting 5.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: NMR trades at premium valuation expecting 5.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.05
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMR is currently trading at $9.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.61 to $9.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (11.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.61 -
$9.36
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($10.20)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.0% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.61 -
$9.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.89
Resistance Level
$8.87
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.08
Wall Street Target
$10.20
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Profit Margin
16.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.0% premium
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 11.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.24
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$10.75
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$11.29
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -10.7%)
$11.84
(+21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: -10.7%)
$7.11
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: -10.7%)
$6.04
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.74
Bull Case
$10.71
(+10%)
Analyst growth 0.7%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$9.73
(0%)
Market implied 0.7%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$6.57
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 7:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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