NOC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOC - Northrop Grumman Corp.
$551.03
-12.83 (-2.28%)
âŧ
5d:
-5.95%
30d:
+3.29%
90d:
-0.1%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NOC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NOC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$781.41
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$485.20
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOC is currently trading at $551.03, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $528.49 to $573.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.1) compared to its historical average (20.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $550.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOC scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $647.14 (+17.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $550.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOC scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $647.14 (+17.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$528.49 -
$573.36
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
40.5%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($647.14)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$528.49 -
$573.36
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$550.18
Resistance Level
$594.51
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.10
Wall Street Target
$647.14
(+17.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.8%
Profit Margin
10.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 20.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$527.89
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$505.72
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$484.48
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â21)
$551.33
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 5.0%)
$707.04
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 5.0%)
$637.71
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 5.0%)
$542.06
(-2%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.47
Bull Case
$599.95
(+9%)
Analyst growth -3.3%, PE expands to 19.7
Base Case
$545.41
(-1%)
Market implied -3.3%, PE stable at 17.9
Bear Case
$383.43
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.1 to 20.6
Stabilization Target:
$627.06
(+13.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 8:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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