NOC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOC - Northrop Grumman Corp.
$526.06
-10.53 (-1.96%)
▼
5d:
-4.59%
30d:
-7.22%
90d:
-30.22%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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2 traders called NOC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$860.71
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$534.43
1.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOC is currently trading at $526.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $543.52 to $589.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.8) compared to its historical average (21.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 84.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $530.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $696.95 (+29.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $530.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $696.95 (+29.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$543.52 -
$589.24
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.9% below Wall St target ($696.95)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$543.52 -
$589.24
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$530.61
Resistance Level
$563.93
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.80
Wall Street Target
$696.95
(+29.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
84.9%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 21.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$504.39
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$474.13
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$445.68
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→21)
$535.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 7.9%)
$828.58
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 7.9%)
$673.30
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 7.9%)
$572.31
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.92
Bull Case
$572.63
(+2%)
Analyst growth -5.6%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$520.57
(-7%)
Market implied -5.6%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$374.91
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.8 to 21.4
Stabilization Target:
$644.96
(+20.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 4:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael A Hardesty
SELL
147 shares
2026-02-19
Benjamin R Davies
SELL
2189 shares
2026-02-18
Kathy J Warden
SELL
20000 shares
2026-02-06
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