Northrop Grumman (NOC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOC - Northrop Grumman Corp.
$476.11
-1.89 (-0.40%)
▼
5d:
-5.87%
30d:
-9.87%
90d:
-13.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$758.98
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$471.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOC is currently trading at $476.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $502.50 to $539.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.6) compared to its historical average (20.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $470.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOC scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $639.23 (+34.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $470.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOC scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $639.23 (+34.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$502.50 -
$539.53
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NOC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.3% below Wall St target ($639.23)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$502.50 -
$539.53
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$470.06
Resistance Level
$529.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.63
Wall Street Target
$639.23
(+34.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.8%
Profit Margin
10.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 20.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$438.50
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$403.86
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$371.95
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→20)
$475.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: 5.0%)
$694.60
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 5.0%)
$551.25
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 5.0%)
$468.56
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.45
Bull Case
$509.13
(+7%)
Analyst growth -3.2%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$462.85
(-3%)
Market implied -3.2%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$325.04
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 20.0
Stabilization Target:
$609.06
(+27.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 05, 2026 6:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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