Northrop Grumman (NOC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOC - Northrop Grumman Corp.
$551.44
-0.91 (-0.16%)
▼
5d:
+6.07%
30d:
+8.34%
90d:
+0.7%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 20, 2026 at $534.00 · last confirmed Oct 22, 2026
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$679.20
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$421.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOC is currently trading at $551.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $484.11 to $525.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.3) is in line with its historical norms (19.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $556.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $631.67 (+14.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $556.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $631.67 (+14.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$484.11 -
$525.10
Company Quality Score
27/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
21.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NOC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.0% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($631.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 27/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$484.11 -
$525.10
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$479.00
Resistance Level
$556.56
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.32
Wall Street Target
$631.67
(+14.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 19.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$537.10
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$523.14
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$509.54
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$550.77
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.3%)
$621.86
(+13%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 1.3%)
$573.57
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 1.3%)
$487.53
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.68
Bull Case
$562.92
(+2%)
Analyst growth -5.1%, PE expands to 18.7
Base Case
$511.74
(-7%)
Market implied -5.1%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$366.73
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 19.8
Stabilization Target:
$596.07
(+8.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:11 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NOC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NOC price and gamma walls.
