NOC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOC - Northrop Grumman Corp.
$536.70
-5.12 (-0.94%)
▼
5d:
-2.25%
30d:
-2.86%
90d:
-21.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
6d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NOC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.7% annual earnings decline despite 85% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NOC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.7% annual earnings decline despite 85% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$830.99
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$515.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOC is currently trading at $536.70, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $513.18 to $551.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.0) compared to its historical average (20.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 84.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $552.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $687.14 (+26.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $552.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $687.14 (+26.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$513.18 -
$551.13
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.8% below Wall St target ($687.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$513.18 -
$551.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$24.95
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$493.84
Resistance Level
$552.63
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.97
Wall Street Target
$687.14
(+26.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
84.9%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 20.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$516.35
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$492.09
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$468.96
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→21)
$540.22
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.8%)
$823.75
(+52%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 7.8%)
$679.63
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 7.8%)
$577.68
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.89
Bull Case
$561.25
(+4%)
Analyst growth -5.4%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case
$510.23
(-6%)
Market implied -5.4%, PE stable at 16.9
Bear Case
$366.95
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.0 to 20.7
Stabilization Target:
$624.15
(+15.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 11:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael A Hardesty
SELL
147 shares
2026-02-19
Benjamin R Davies
SELL
2189 shares
2026-02-18
Kathy J Warden
SELL
20000 shares
2026-02-06
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Advanced NOC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NOC price and gamma walls.
