NOC
Northrop Grumman Corp.
SEARCH, DETECTION, NAVAGATION, GUIDANCE, AERONAUTICAL SYS
Northrop Grumman (NOC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$549.13
-1.83 (-0.33%)
âŧ
5d:
+4.55%
30d:
+10.78%
90d:
-6.27%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
Protect NOC Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (70%)
Quality Score
52/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$494.79 â $555.24
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
18.3x
FAIR
vs 19.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$635.25
+15.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$510.30 / $575.55
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NOC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1148.62
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$713.20
23.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOC is currently trading at $549.13, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $494.79 to $555.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.3) is in line with its historical norms (19.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $510.30, while resistance sits at $575.55.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $635.25 (+15.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $510.30, while resistance sits at $575.55.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $635.25 (+15.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$494.79 -
$555.24
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$494.79 -
$555.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$21.39
(3.9%)
Support Level
$510.30
Resistance Level
$575.55
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding NOC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($635.25)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.34
Wall Street Target
$635.25
(+15.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 19.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$535.95
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$523.09
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$510.53
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â20)
$548.38
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 63.9%)
$606.10
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 63.9%)
$559.73
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 63.9%)
$475.77
(-13%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.68
Bull Case
$572.78
(+4%)
Analyst growth -5.5%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$520.71
(-5%)
Market implied -5.5%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$374.65
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 19.7
Stabilization Target:
$589.83
(+7.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.4%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NOC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment on StockTwits regarding $NOC's strong performance, despite the article discussing Textron's lower profit margins and manufacturing inefficiencies.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong customer demand
Company growth
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
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