NOC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOC - Northrop Grumman Corp.
$513.22
5.89 (1.16%)
▲
5d:
-5.78%
30d:
-6.95%
90d:
-24.53%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
26d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NOC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NOC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$848.64
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$526.94
2.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOC is currently trading at $513.22, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $538.63 to $556.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.0) compared to its historical average (21.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 84.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $503.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $696.95 (+35.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $503.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $696.95 (+35.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$538.63 -
$556.94
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NOC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.8% below Wall St target ($696.95)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$538.63 -
$556.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$503.68
Resistance Level
$559.70
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.03
Wall Street Target
$696.95
(+35.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
84.9%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 21.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$477.81
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$444.84
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$414.15
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→21)
$513.16
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.9%)
$823.66
(+61%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 7.9%)
$643.98
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 7.9%)
$547.38
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.91
Bull Case
$527.08
(+3%)
Analyst growth -5.6%, PE expands to 17.5
Base Case
$479.17
(-7%)
Market implied -5.6%, PE stable at 15.9
Bear Case
$344.98
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.0 to 21.1
Stabilization Target:
$635.92
(+23.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael A Hardesty
SELL
147 shares
2026-02-19
Benjamin R Davies
SELL
2189 shares
2026-02-18
Kathy J Warden
SELL
20000 shares
2026-02-06
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