NP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NP - Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
$31.42
-0.29 (-0.91%)
▼
5d:
+1.95%
30d:
-5.42%
90d:
+26.64%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.21
Based on 13.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NP is currently trading at $31.42, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.66 to $32.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 47.2) is in line with its historical norms (45.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.20, while resistance sits at $35.15.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.20, while resistance sits at $35.15.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$29.66 -
$32.95
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.62)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.66 -
$32.95
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.20
Resistance Level
$35.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
47.22
Wall Street Target
$33.62
(+6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Profit Margin
21.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
47.2 vs 45.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.22
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$32.73
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$33.26
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 47→45)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.69
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 47.2, Growth: 22.8%)
$58.70
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 22.8%)
$25.77
(-19%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 22.8%)
$21.90
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 41.32 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.77
Bull Case
$38.29
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 43.4
Base Case
$31.71
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 41.3
Bear Case
$24.26
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 37.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Trevor R Burgess
BUY
50000 shares
2026-03-13
Michael Warren Vostrizan…
BUY
23000 shares
2026-02-20
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