NPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPK - National Presto Industries, Inc.
$149.95
-0.76 (-0.50%)
▼
5d:
+7.21%
30d:
+22.93%
90d:
+16.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 14, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NPK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NPK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.15
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $149.95, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $122.37 to $142.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 172.4) compared to its historical average (146.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $135.72, while resistance sits at $154.87.
Market Sentiment: NPK scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $135.72, while resistance sits at $154.87.
Market Sentiment: NPK scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$122.37 -
$142.66
Company Quality Score
25/100
(STRONG SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
14.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.1% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 87.4% above Wall St target ($18.93)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.5% growth expectation is conservative given 207% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 25/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$122.37 -
$142.66
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$135.72
Resistance Level
$154.87
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
172.36
Wall Street Target
$18.93
(-87.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
207.0%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
172.4 vs 146.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$158.20
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$166.90
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$176.08
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 172→147)
PE COMPRESSION
$149.97
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 172.4, Growth: 17.6%)
$243.67
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 17.6%)
$28.37
(-81%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 17.6%)
$24.12
(-84%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 24.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.09
Bull Case
$82.89
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 27.2
Base Case
$75.35
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 24.8
Bear Case
$102.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Randy F Lieble
SELL
2417 shares
2026-03-11
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