National Presto Industries (NPK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPK - National Presto Industries, Inc.
$148.72
0.31 (0.21%)
â˛
5d:
-0.22%
30d:
+3.2%
90d:
+18.97%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NPK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -48.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NPK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -48.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$250.82
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$155.74
4.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $148.72, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $146.56 to $151.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.6) compared to its historical average (146.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 48.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 207.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $144.19, while resistance sits at $153.74.
Market Sentiment: NPK scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $144.19, while resistance sits at $153.74.
Market Sentiment: NPK scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$146.56 -
$151.93
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($162.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$146.56 -
$151.93
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$144.19
Resistance Level
$153.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.58
Wall Street Target
$162.00
(+9.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
207.0%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-48.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 146.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-48.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$133.56
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$120.20
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$108.18
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21â147)
$772.12
(+420%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 9.7%)
$196.13
(+32%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.7%)
$189.24
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 9.7%)
$160.86
(+8%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.98
Bull Case
$199.08
(+34%)
Analyst growth 20.6%, PE expands to 27.6
Base Case
$180.99
(+22%)
Market implied 20.6%, PE stable at 25.1
Bear Case
$102.07
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 146.9
Stabilization Target:
$1059.15
(+613.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+613.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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