NPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPK - National Presto Industries, Inc.
$123.00
-1.69 (-1.36%)
▼
5d:
-1.2%
30d:
-4.68%
90d:
-12.67%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 14, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NPK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NPK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.15
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $123.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $123.84 to $129.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 141.4) is in line with its historical norms (146.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $121.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $121.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$123.84 -
$129.77
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 84.6% above Wall St target ($18.93)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$123.84 -
$129.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$121.57
Resistance Level
$127.75
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
141.38
Wall Street Target
$18.93
(-84.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.2%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
141.4 vs 146.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$121.65
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$120.31
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$118.99
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 141→146)
$123.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 141.4, Growth: 17.6%)
$199.88
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.6%)
$30.79
(-75%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.6%)
$26.17
(-79%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 27.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.49
Bull Case
$68.58
(-44%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 30.6
Base Case
$62.34
(-49%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 27.8
Bear Case
$84.79
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 141.4 to 146.2
Stabilization Target:
$127.19
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Randy F Lieble
SELL
2417 shares
2026-03-11
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