NPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPK - National Presto Industries, Inc.
$126.88
-1.21 (-0.94%)
▼
5d:
-0.96%
30d:
-1.47%
90d:
-5.14%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NPK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NPK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.15
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $126.88, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.63 to $136.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 145.8) is in line with its historical norms (146.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $124.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NPK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $124.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NPK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$126.63 -
$136.11
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 85.1% above Wall St target ($18.93)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$126.63 -
$136.11
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$124.66
Resistance Level
$133.37
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
145.84
Wall Street Target
$18.93
(-85.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.2%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
145.8 vs 146.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$126.75
(0%)
2-Year Target
$126.63
(0%)
3-Year Target
$126.50
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 146→147)
$127.07
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 145.8, Growth: 17.6%)
$206.18
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.6%)
$30.79
(-76%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.6%)
$26.17
(-79%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 28.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.50
Bull Case
$70.45
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$64.04
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 28.5
Bear Case
$87.10
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 145.8 to 146.5
Stabilization Target:
$127.46
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 1:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Randy F Lieble
SELL
2417 shares
2026-03-11
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