NPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPK - National Presto Industries, Inc.
$134.91
13.49 (11.11%)
▲
5d:
+7.93%
30d:
+9.5%
90d:
-4.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 14, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NPK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NPK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.15
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $134.91, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $121.10 to $126.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 139.6) is in line with its historical norms (146.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $137.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 11.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $137.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 11.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$121.10 -
$126.18
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.9% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+11.1%)
- BEARISH: Trading 84.4% above Wall St target ($18.93)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$121.10 -
$126.18
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$119.70
Resistance Level
$137.42
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
139.56
Wall Street Target
$18.93
(-84.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.2%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
139.6 vs 146.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$119.60
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$117.80
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$116.04
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 140→146)
$121.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 139.6, Growth: 17.6%)
$197.31
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 17.6%)
$29.31
(-76%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 17.6%)
$24.91
(-80%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 27.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.50
Bull Case
$66.83
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 29.7
Base Case
$60.75
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 27.0
Bear Case
$82.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 139.6 to 146.0
Stabilization Target:
$127.02
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Randy F Lieble
SELL
2417 shares
2026-03-11
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