National Presto Industries (NPK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPK - National Presto Industries, Inc.
$150.73
0.61 (0.41%)
â˛
5d:
+4.2%
30d:
+4.17%
90d:
+21.07%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NPK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NPK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.15
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $150.73, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $146.11 to $153.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 173.2) compared to its historical average (150.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $153.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $153.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$146.11 -
$153.08
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 87.4% above Wall St target ($18.93)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 4.8% growth expectation is conservative given 207% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$146.11 -
$153.08
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$142.61
Resistance Level
$153.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
173.25
Wall Street Target
$18.93
(-87.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
207.0%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
173.3 vs 150.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$157.97
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$165.55
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$173.49
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 173â151)
PE COMPRESSION
$150.71
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 173.3, Growth: 17.6%)
$244.94
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 17.6%)
$28.84
(-81%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 17.6%)
$24.51
(-84%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 24.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.06
Bull Case
$82.57
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 27.3
Base Case
$75.06
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 24.8
Bear Case
$102.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 8:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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