NPK
National Presto Industries, Inc.
ORDNANCE & ACCESSORIES, (NO VEHICLES/GUIDED MISSILES)
National Presto Industries (NPK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$140.30
-3.09 (-2.15%)
▼
5d:
-0.23%
30d:
-3.35%
90d:
+0.31%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (55%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$145.02 – $151.51
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
19.5x
CHEAP
vs 138.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$162.00
+15.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$138.36 / $154.14
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NPK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$250.82
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$155.74
9.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $140.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $145.02 to $151.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.5) compared to its historical average (138.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 48.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 207.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $138.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NPK scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $162.00 (+15.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $138.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NPK scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $162.00 (+15.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$145.02 -
$151.51
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$145.02 -
$151.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$138.36
Resistance Level
$154.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($162.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.46
Wall Street Target
$162.00
(+15.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
207.0%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-48.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 138.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-48.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$126.27
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$113.64
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$102.28
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→139)
$727.97
(+419%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.7%)
$189.24
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 9.7%)
$185.42
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: 9.7%)
$157.61
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.89
Bull Case
$193.08
(+38%)
Analyst growth 22.4%, PE expands to 26.8
Base Case
$175.53
(+25%)
Market implied 22.4%, PE stable at 24.3
Bear Case
$97.51
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.5 to 138.5
Stabilization Target:
$998.58
(+611.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+611.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NPK)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Sep 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Traders on StockTwits express bullish sentiments towards $NPK as the stock bounces off its 50-day moving average.
Key Retail Themes:
Stock price rebound
Moving average support
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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