National Presto Industries (NPK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPK - National Presto Industries, Inc.
$154.28
6.31 (4.26%)
▲
5d:
+6.62%
30d:
+10.79%
90d:
+18.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NPK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NPK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.15
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPK is currently trading at $154.28, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $139.82 to $152.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 177.3) compared to its historical average (148.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $155.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $155.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.93. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$139.82 -
$152.05
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading 87.7% above Wall St target ($18.93)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 6.0% growth expectation is conservative given 207% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$139.82 -
$152.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$142.55
Resistance Level
$155.52
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
177.33
Wall Street Target
$18.93
(-87.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
207.0%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.0% premium
PE vs Historical
177.3 vs 148.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$163.54
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$173.35
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$183.75
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 177→149)
PE COMPRESSION
$154.08
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 177.3, Growth: 17.6%)
$250.71
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 17.6%)
$28.52
(-82%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 17.6%)
$24.24
(-84%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 24.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.96
Bull Case
$81.38
(-47%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 27.3
Base Case
$73.99
(-52%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 24.8
Bear Case
$100.62
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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