ODFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Line
$237.42
-8.33 (-3.39%)
▼
5d:
-3.88%
30d:
+19.42%
90d:
+30.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ODFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ODFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$257.78
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$160.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $237.42, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $200.55 to $239.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 37.6) compared to its historical average (33.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $215.90, while resistance sits at $252.03. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: ODFL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $215.90, while resistance sits at $252.03. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: ODFL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$200.55 -
$239.21
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($221.82)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.4% growth with -2.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$200.55 -
$239.21
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$215.90
Resistance Level
$252.03
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.60
Wall Street Target
$221.82
(-6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.2%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
37.6 vs 33.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$247.87
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$258.77
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$270.16
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 38→33)
PE COMPRESSION
$237.09
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.6, Growth: 16.8%)
$377.92
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.8%)
$218.89
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 16.8%)
$186.06
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (51x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (38x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 51.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.79
Bull Case
$356.32
(+50%)
Analyst growth 31.8%, PE expands to 56.4
Base Case
$323.93
(+36%)
Market implied 31.8%, PE stable at 51.3
Bear Case
$167.11
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 43.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 16, 2026 3:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Earl E Congdon
SELL
25000 shares
2026-02-26
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
David S Congdon
SELL
52000 shares
2026-02-19
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