ODFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Line
$212.14
-0.33 (-0.16%)
▼
5d:
-8.95%
30d:
-2.67%
90d:
-0.14%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ODFL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ODFL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$244.77
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$151.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $212.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $216.67 to $231.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.5) is in line with its historical norms (33.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $205.16, while resistance sits at $237.15.
Market Sentiment: ODFL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $205.16, while resistance sits at $237.15.
Market Sentiment: ODFL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$216.67 -
$231.04
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ODFL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($229.50)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.9%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$216.67 -
$231.04
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$205.16
Resistance Level
$237.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.51
Wall Street Target
$229.50
(+8.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
32.5 vs 33.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$210.23
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$208.34
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$206.46
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→33)
$212.11
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.5, Growth: 13.0%)
$305.79
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 13.0%)
$194.99
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 13.0%)
$165.74
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.57
Bull Case
$333.71
(+57%)
Analyst growth 42.8%, PE expands to 51.1
Base Case
$303.38
(+43%)
Market implied 42.8%, PE stable at 46.5
Bear Case
$144.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.5 to 33.4
Stabilization Target:
$217.95
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Earl E Congdon
SELL
25000 shares
2026-02-26
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
David S Congdon
SELL
52000 shares
2026-02-19
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