OPXS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OPXS - Optex Systems Holdings, INC
$11.69
-0.26 (-2.18%)
▼
5d:
+0.43%
30d:
+8.04%
90d:
-14.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OPXS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OPXS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.71
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OPXS is currently trading at $11.69, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.44 to $11.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OPXS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.86, while resistance sits at $12.22.
Market Sentiment: OPXS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.20 (+38.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OPXS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.86, while resistance sits at $12.22.
Market Sentiment: OPXS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.20 (+38.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.44 -
$11.46
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.6% below Wall St target ($16.20)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.8% growth with -10.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.44 -
$11.46
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.86
Resistance Level
$12.22
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.99
Wall Street Target
$16.20
(+38.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.2%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 12.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.78
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$11.88
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$11.97
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.71
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 16.9%)
$31.49
(+169%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 16.9%)
$18.67
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 16.9%)
$15.87
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.59
Bull Case
$19.53
(+74%)
Analyst growth 52.5%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$17.76
(+59%)
Market implied 52.5%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$7.92
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OPXS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Danny Robert Schoening
SELL
28924 shares
2026-01-08
Danny Robert Schoening
SELL
27946 shares
2026-01-07
Danny Robert Schoening
SELL
14066 shares
2026-01-06
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