OPXS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OPXS - Optex Systems Holdings, INC
$11.17
0.36 (3.34%)
▲
5d:
-1.76%
30d:
-4.12%
90d:
+4.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: OPXS is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: OPXS is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.59
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.16
8.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OPXS is currently trading at $11.17, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.04 to $12.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (13.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OPXS is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $10.50, while resistance sits at $11.98. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.20 (+45.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OPXS is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $10.50, while resistance sits at $11.98. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.20 (+45.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$11.04 -
$12.36
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 45.0% below Wall St target ($16.20)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.04 -
$12.36
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.50
Resistance Level
$11.98
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.41
Wall Street Target
$16.20
(+45.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.9%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 13.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.90
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$10.64
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$10.38
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$11.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 16.9%)
$28.84
(+158%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 16.9%)
$17.84
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 16.9%)
$15.16
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.54
Bull Case
$19.82
(+77%)
Analyst growth 66.7%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$18.02
(+61%)
Market implied 66.7%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$7.35
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 13.3
Stabilization Target:
$11.97
(+7.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 7:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is OPXS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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