OPXS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OPXS - Optex Systems Holdings, INC
$12.76
0.14 (1.11%)
▲
5d:
-6.66%
30d:
+4.76%
90d:
+9.06%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OPXS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: OPXS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.74
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OPXS is currently trading at $12.76, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.44 to $13.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.2) is in line with its historical norms (13.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OPXS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.90, while resistance sits at $13.84.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.20 (+27.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OPXS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.90, while resistance sits at $13.84.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.20 (+27.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$12.44 -
$13.51
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.0% below Wall St target ($16.20)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with -10.3% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.44 -
$13.51
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.90
Resistance Level
$13.84
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.18
Wall Street Target
$16.20
(+27.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.2%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 13.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.02
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$13.28
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$13.54
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.80
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.9%)
$31.30
(+145%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 16.9%)
$20.38
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 16.9%)
$17.32
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.59
Bull Case
$21.18
(+66%)
Analyst growth 52.5%, PE expands to 23.5
Base Case
$19.25
(+51%)
Market implied 52.5%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$8.58
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OPXS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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