ORN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORN - Orion Group Holdings, Inc
$10.02
0.24 (2.45%)
▲
5d:
-19.32%
30d:
-32.34%
90d:
-31.23%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ORN is down 19.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ORN is down 19.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.04
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.31
30.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORN is currently trading at $10.02, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.78 to $15.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.7) compared to its historical average (26.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.67, while resistance sits at $13.46.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.40 (+57.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.67, while resistance sits at $13.46.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.40 (+57.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.78 -
$15.76
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ORN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 57.5% below Wall St target ($15.40)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -19.3% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.78 -
$15.76
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.67
Resistance Level
$13.46
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.66
Wall Street Target
$15.40
(+57.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.3%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.7 vs 26.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.03
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$8.33
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$7.69
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→26)
$9.79
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 90.8%)
$33.11
(+239%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 90.8%)
$33.01
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 90.8%)
$28.06
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 23.58 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.41
Bull Case
$11.81
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.8
Base Case
$9.78
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.6
Bear Case
$7.48
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.7 to 26.3
Stabilization Target:
$12.45
(+27.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Austin J Shanfelter
SELL
90000 shares
2026-03-10
Quentin P Jr. Smith
SELL
10695 shares
2026-03-10
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