Is PAYX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, PAYX is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAYX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of PAYX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PAYX to be between $113.01 and $121.96. The current price is $124.47.

What is the analyst price target for PAYX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PAYX is $111.00. This implies a potential upside of -9.7% from current levels.

PAYX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PAYX - Paychex Inc

SERVICES-ENGINEERING, ACCOUNTING, RESEARCH, MANAGEMENT

$124.48

1.56 (1.27%) ▲

5d: +2.01%

30d: +12.48%

90d: +32.07%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your PAYX Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 29, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $118.84 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 4.7/10

Get Alerted When PAYX Hits Your Target Price

Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move

You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.

100% Free No spam, ever Unsubscribe anytime

Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

Loading historical data...

💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAYX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 7.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$135.76

Based on 5.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$84.30

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PAYX is currently trading at $124.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $113.01 to $121.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.9) compared to its historical average (17.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $125.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $113.01 - $121.96

Company Quality Score 39/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 42.9%

Protect Your Profits

Holding PAYX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($111.00)
NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.0% growth which is achievable
WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $113.01 - $121.96

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $118.48

Resistance Level $125.90

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 20.85

Wall Street Target $111.00 (-9.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 43.4%

Profit Margin 26.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +6.0% premium

PE vs Historical 20.9 vs 17.5 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +6.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $130.28 (+6%)

2-Year Target $138.10 (+12%)

3-Year Target $146.39 (+19%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 21→18) PE COMPRESSION $122.88 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.8, Growth: 7.3%) $151.69 (+23%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.3%) $146.03 (+19%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 7.3%) $124.13 (+1%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 24.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.00

Bull Case $158.89 (+28%)

Analyst growth 17.9%, PE expands to 27.0

Base Case $144.44 (+16%)

Market implied 17.9%, PE stable at 24.5

Bear Case $83.30 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

Share & Embed Analysis

Found this analysis useful? Share it with your community or embed the live chart on your blog.

Tweet Reddit

bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.

Last updated: August 24, 2026 12:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:38 AM

🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now

Ticker	Score	Recommendation	Change %

See Full Scanner Results »

Technical Signals Check

Is PAYX showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Rick Larsen SELL 2026-04-07

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-10

View Insider Activity Scanner

Unlock Insider Activity

See real-time buying/selling by company executives for PAYX.

Create Free Account

Already have an account? Log In

Top Rated Software - Application Stocks

Top-rated stocks in Software - Application by analyst ratings.

Stock	Analyst Consensus	Analyst Target	Tradestie Score
HUBS HubSpot Inc	STRONG BUY 36 analysts	$243	47 HOLD
NOW ServiceNow Inc	STRONG BUY 47 analysts	$142	44 HOLD
GRAB Grab Holdings Ltd	STRONG BUY 27 analysts	$6	50 HOLD
SHOP Shopify Inc	STRONG BUY 51 analysts	$171	46 HOLD
DT Dynatrace Holdings LLC	STRONG BUY 34 analysts	$59	38 SELL

GRAB Grab Holdings Ltd

50 HOLD

SHOP Shopify Inc

46 HOLD

DT Dynatrace Holding…

38 SELL

Advanced PAYX Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYX price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for PAYX

PAYX Technical Chart PAYX Price Prediction PAYX Earnings Date PAYX Investment Advisor PAYX Fair Price Analyzer PAYX Options Advisor PAYX Options Chain PAYX Options Analysis PAYX Competitors

Compare PAYX with Peers

PAYX vs ADP
Which one to buy?

PAYX vs FAST
Which one to buy?

PAYX vs CTAS
Which one to buy?

PAYX vs PCAR
Which one to buy?

PAYX vs SYY
Which one to buy?

ABPWW vs PAYX
Winner: PAYX

FAST vs PAYX

NXPI vs PAYX
Winner: PAYX

FISV vs PAYX

AAXJ vs PAYX

GFS vs PAYX

KLAC vs PAYX
Winner: KLAC

DXCM vs PAYX

PAYX vs SMCI
Winner: PAYX

GOOG vs PAYX
Winner: GOOG

Create New Comparison View All Competitors

Tradestie