PAYX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYX - Paychex Inc
$97.99
2.06 (2.15%)
▲
5d:
-2.88%
30d:
+3.97%
90d:
+4.8%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 24, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAYX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAYX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$132.66
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYX is currently trading at $97.99, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $94.99 to $100.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.6) is in line with its historical norms (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $93.63, while resistance sits at $102.92.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $93.63, while resistance sits at $102.92.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$94.99 -
$100.52
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($105.43)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$94.99 -
$100.52
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$93.63
Resistance Level
$102.92
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.62
Wall Street Target
$105.43
(+7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Profit Margin
26.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 17.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.01
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$96.04
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$95.08
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$97.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.3%)
$158.47
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 7.3%)
$120.94
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 7.3%)
$102.80
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.53
Bull Case
$140.64
(+47%)
Analyst growth 30.1%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$127.85
(+33%)
Market implied 30.1%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$66.80
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.6 to 17.1
Stabilization Target:
$100.81
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rick Larsen
SELL
2026-04-07
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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