PBF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBF - PBF ENERGY INC.
$73.53
3.97 (5.71%)
▲
5d:
+2.34%
30d:
+18.69%
90d:
+88.2%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PBF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PBF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.54
Based on -16.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBF is currently trading at $73.53, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.92 to $71.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.3) compared to its historical average (12.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: PBF scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: PBF scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$60.92 -
$71.64
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($67.46)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$60.92 -
$71.64
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$62.90
Resistance Level
$75.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.32
Wall Street Target
$67.46
(-3.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
56.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-69.9%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 12.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.60
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$56.34
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$50.71
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→12)
$99.44
(+43%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -37.4%)
$160.94
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: -37.4%)
$50.71
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: -37.4%)
$43.10
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.41
Bull Case
$78.38
(+7%)
Analyst growth -3.6%, PE expands to 7.1
Base Case
$71.25
(-3%)
Market implied -3.6%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$50.26
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 12.4
Stabilization Target:
$136.40
(+96.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+96.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 10:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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