PBF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBF - PBF ENERGY INC.
$40.69
1.40 (3.56%)
▲
5d:
+2.6%
30d:
+4.15%
90d:
-12.66%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PBF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PBF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.25
Based on -8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBF is currently trading at $40.69, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.10 to $42.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.5) compared to its historical average (13.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 21.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.61, while resistance sits at $44.66. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: PBF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.61, while resistance sits at $44.66. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: PBF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$39.10 -
$42.50
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($44.08)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.10 -
$42.50
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.61
Resistance Level
$44.67
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.48
Wall Street Target
$44.08
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-69.9%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-21.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 13.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-21.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.62
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$32.96
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$29.66
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→14)
$61.84
(+52%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -20.3%)
$99.77
(+145%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: -20.3%)
$29.66
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: -20.3%)
$25.21
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.79
Bull Case
$71.66
(+76%)
Analyst growth 65.8%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$65.14
(+60%)
Market implied 65.8%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$26.72
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.5 to 13.5
Stabilization Target:
$84.83
(+108.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+108.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 6:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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