Is PBF stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, PBF is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PBF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of PBF stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PBF to be between $70.67 and $77.78. The current price is $80.78.

What is the analyst price target for PBF?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PBF is $73.38. This implies a potential upside of -9.2% from current levels.

PBF ENERGY (PBF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PBF - PBF ENERGY INC.

PETROLEUM REFINING

$80.78

-1.56 (-1.89%) ▼

5d: +9.62%

30d: +7.02%

90d: +63.99%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your PBF Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 29, 2026 25d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 1, 2026 at $82.34 · last confirmed Oct 2, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PBF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -26.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$94.24

Based on -11.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$58.51

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PBF is currently trading at $80.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.67 to $77.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.2) compared to its historical average (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 23.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $68.40, while resistance sits at $83.36.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $70.67 - $77.78

Company Quality Score 48/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 43.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($73.38)
WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $70.67 - $77.78

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $68.40

Resistance Level $83.36

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 5.21

Wall Street Target $73.38 (-9.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 56.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -69.9%

Profit Margin 3.9%

Valuation Discount vs History -23.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 5.2 vs 11.5 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -23.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $72.70 (-10%)

2-Year Target $65.43 (-19%)

3-Year Target $58.89 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 5→12) $129.92 (+61%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.4, Growth: -26.6%) $230.47 (+185%)

Base: (SPY PE: 5.2, Growth: -26.6%) $58.89 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 4.4, Growth: -26.6%) $50.06 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 7.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.41

Bull Case $123.02 (+52%)

Analyst growth 35.8%, PE expands to 7.9

Base Case $111.84 (+38%)

Market implied 35.8%, PE stable at 7.2

Bear Case $55.99 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.2 to 11.5

Stabilization Target: $178.22 (+120.6%)

PE Expansion Potential: +120.6%

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Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Control Empresarial De C… SELL 70000 shares 2026-04-07

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