PBF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBF - PBF ENERGY INC.
$59.34
1.90 (3.31%)
▲
5d:
+22.45%
30d:
+44.27%
90d:
+46.05%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: PBF is 19.3% above its trading range ($49.72). Market expects -10.1% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: PBF is 19.3% above its trading range ($49.72). Market expects -10.1% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.46
Based on -12.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBF is currently trading at $59.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.17 to $49.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: PBF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $45.92. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $44.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: PBF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $45.92. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$39.17 -
$49.72
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+19.3% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading 20.1% above Wall St target ($45.92)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 19.3% overvaluation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.17 -
$49.72
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.61
Resistance Level
$44.67
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.42
Wall Street Target
$45.92
(-20.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-69.9%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 12.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.70
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$46.53
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$41.87
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→13)
$57.37
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -29.1%)
$96.85
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: -29.1%)
$41.87
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: -29.1%)
$35.59
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.79
Bull Case
$94.15
(+64%)
Analyst growth 60.9%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$85.59
(+49%)
Market implied 60.9%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$36.16
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$78.69
(+37.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
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