PBF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBF - PBF ENERGY INC.
$67.36
-4.92 (-6.81%)
▼
5d:
+7.33%
30d:
+40.89%
90d:
+56.65%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PBF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PBF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.97
Based on -25.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBF is currently trading at $67.36, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.77 to $66.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (12.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.95, while resistance sits at $74.74. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: PBF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $57.08. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.95, while resistance sits at $74.74. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: PBF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $57.08. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$48.77 -
$66.14
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.8%)
- BEARISH: Trading 21.0% above Wall St target ($57.08)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.77 -
$66.14
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.95
Resistance Level
$74.74
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.61
Wall Street Target
$57.08
(-21.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-69.9%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 12.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.05
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$58.55
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$52.69
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→13)
$77.08
(+7%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -55.8%)
$126.82
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: -55.8%)
$52.69
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: -55.8%)
$44.79
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.37
Bull Case
$154.42
(+114%)
Analyst growth 92.0%, PE expands to 18.4
Base Case
$140.38
(+94%)
Market implied 92.0%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$49.71
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 12.6
Stabilization Target:
$105.74
(+46.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+46.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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