PBF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBF - PBF ENERGY INC.
$42.55
-0.62 (-1.44%)
▼
5d:
+9.66%
30d:
-6.55%
90d:
-5.02%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PBF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -21.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PBF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -21.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.46
Based on -5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBF is currently trading at $42.55, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.92 to $43.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.0) compared to its historical average (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 21.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.61, while resistance sits at $43.89.
Market Sentiment: PBF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.61, while resistance sits at $43.89.
Market Sentiment: PBF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$39.92 -
$43.49
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.92 -
$43.49
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.61
Resistance Level
$43.89
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.99
Wall Street Target
$43.75
(+2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-69.9%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-21.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 14.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-21.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.30
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$34.47
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$31.02
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→14)
$63.04
(+48%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -15.5%)
$97.27
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: -15.5%)
$31.02
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: -15.5%)
$26.37
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.79
Bull Case
$54.01
(+36%)
Analyst growth 26.5%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$49.10
(+23%)
Market implied 26.5%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$26.38
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$86.48
(+103.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+103.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 10:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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