PBF ENERGY (PBF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBF - PBF ENERGY INC.
$78.30
1.22 (1.58%)
▲
5d:
+3.94%
30d:
+11.32%
90d:
+90.37%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PBF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PBF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.55
Based on -17.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBF is currently trading at $78.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.45 to $75.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.1) compared to its historical average (11.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $68.87, while resistance sits at $82.61.
Market Sentiment: PBF scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $67.62. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $68.87, while resistance sits at $82.61.
Market Sentiment: PBF scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $67.62. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$66.45 -
$75.95
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 13.6% above Wall St target ($67.62)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.45 -
$75.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.87
Resistance Level
$82.61
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.12
Wall Street Target
$67.62
(-13.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
56.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-69.9%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 11.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.47
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$63.42
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$57.08
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→12)
$95.43
(+22%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -39.8%)
$161.74
(+107%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: -39.8%)
$57.08
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: -39.8%)
$48.52
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.49
Bull Case
$81.17
(+4%)
Analyst growth -4.3%, PE expands to 7.4
Base Case
$73.79
(-6%)
Market implied -4.3%, PE stable at 6.7
Bear Case
$52.41
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 11.9
Stabilization Target:
$130.90
(+67.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+67.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 8:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
18
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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