PBF ENERGY (PBF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBF - PBF ENERGY INC.
$76.17
-3.08 (-3.89%)
âŧ
5d:
-9.88%
30d:
+5.94%
90d:
+21.37%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PBF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -28.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PBF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -28.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$115.85
Based on -10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBF is currently trading at $76.17, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.75 to $85.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.1) compared to its historical average (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 28.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $75.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: PBF scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.00 (+10.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBF is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $75.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: PBF scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.00 (+10.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$73.75 -
$85.44
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PBF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($84.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$73.75 -
$85.44
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.65
Resistance Level
$92.46
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.10
Wall Street Target
$84.00
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
56.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-69.9%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-28.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.1 vs 11.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-28.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.55
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$61.70
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$55.53
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4â11)
$148.81
(+95%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -24.3%)
$268.67
(+253%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.1, Growth: -24.3%)
$55.53
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.5, Growth: -24.3%)
$47.20
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.04
Bull Case
$146.53
(+92%)
Analyst growth 68.1%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$133.21
(+75%)
Market implied 68.1%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$53.89
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.1 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$204.13
(+168.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+168.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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