PBR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBR - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS ADS (REP 1 COMMON SHARE)
$19.04
-0.36 (-1.88%)
▼
5d:
+5.75%
30d:
+18.16%
90d:
-13.08%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PBR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PBR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.55
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBR is currently trading at $19.04, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.59 to $18.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.7) compared to its historical average (5.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PBR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.31 (+15.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PBR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.31 (+15.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.59 -
$18.71
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($22.31)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.59 -
$18.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.96
Resistance Level
$19.46
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.72
Wall Street Target
$22.31
(+15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.2%
Profit Margin
21.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.7 vs 5.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.24
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$17.14
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$16.11
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$19.47
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -2.1%)
$80.10
(+313%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.7, Growth: -2.1%)
$18.22
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.0, Growth: -2.1%)
$15.49
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.26
Bull Case
$26.54
(+37%)
Analyst growth 26.2%, PE expands to 6.5
Base Case
$24.12
(+24%)
Market implied 26.2%, PE stable at 5.9
Bear Case
$13.00
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.7 to 5.7
Stabilization Target:
$23.45
(+20.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Angelica Garcia Cobas La…
BUY
1000 shares
2026-04-02
Angelica Garcia Cobas La…
SELL
19 shares
2026-04-01
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