POOL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
POOL - Pool Corporation
$186.52
-1.55 (-0.82%)
▼
5d:
-0.91%
30d:
+0.44%
90d:
+2.44%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: POOL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: POOL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$285.92
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$177.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: POOL is currently trading at $186.52, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $186.34 to $200.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.8) compared to its historical average (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, POOL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $184.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: POOL scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.50 (+17.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, POOL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $184.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: POOL scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.50 (+17.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$186.34 -
$200.01
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
36th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 36th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($219.50)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$186.34 -
$200.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$9.65
(5.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.18
Resistance Level
$197.78
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.78
Wall Street Target
$219.50
(+17.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 18.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$177.57
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$169.04
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$160.93
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$186.59
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.5%)
$294.68
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 7.5%)
$231.39
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 7.5%)
$196.68
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.00
Bull Case
$222.26
(+19%)
Analyst growth 7.4%, PE expands to 18.8
Base Case
$202.05
(+8%)
Market implied 7.4%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$127.89
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.8 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$216.27
(+15.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 01, 2026 3:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is POOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
De La Mesa Manuel J Perez
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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Advanced POOL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's POOL price and gamma walls.
