PSX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PSX - PHILLIPS 66
$170.34
1.93 (1.15%)
▲
5d:
-1.69%
30d:
-2.13%
90d:
-3.63%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PSX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PSX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$212.81
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PSX is currently trading at $170.34, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $171.89 to $182.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.9) compared to its historical average (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $170.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $191.84 (+12.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $170.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $191.84 (+12.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$171.89 -
$182.29
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($191.84)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$171.89 -
$182.29
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$170.02
Resistance Level
$188.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.87
Wall Street Target
$191.84
(+12.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-56.8%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 11.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$160.63
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$151.47
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$142.84
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$170.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -2.2%)
$351.54
(+106%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: -2.2%)
$159.25
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: -2.2%)
$135.36
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.12
Bull Case
$316.04
(+86%)
Analyst growth 70.6%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$287.31
(+69%)
Market implied 70.6%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case
$114.52
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$203.72
(+19.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 1:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PSX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin J Mitchell
SELL
15629 shares
2026-03-30
Kevin Omar Meyers
BUY
175 shares
2026-03-17
Lisa Ann Davis
SELL
3800 shares
2026-03-13
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