RDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RDN - Radian Group Inc.
$36.91
0.65 (1.79%)
▲
5d:
-5.33%
30d:
-1.99%
90d:
-1.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RDN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RDN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.78
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RDN is currently trading at $36.91, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.46 to $39.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.7) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (42/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.00 (+21.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (42/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.00 (+21.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$37.46 -
$39.16
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.9% below Wall St target ($45.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.46 -
$39.16
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.83
Resistance Level
$39.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.72
Wall Street Target
$45.00
(+21.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
58.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Profit Margin
41.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.50
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$36.10
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$35.71
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$36.67
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 3.7%)
$123.88
(+236%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 3.7%)
$41.15
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 3.7%)
$34.97
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.97
Bull Case
$55.19
(+50%)
Analyst growth 38.4%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$50.17
(+36%)
Market implied 38.4%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$24.66
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$37.90
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 08, 2026 10:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is RDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
15000 shares
2026-04-23
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
13009 shares
2026-04-17
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
1991 shares
2026-04-10
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