RDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RDN - Radian Group Inc.
$39.38
0.24 (0.61%)
▲
5d:
+4.07%
30d:
+11.78%
90d:
+14.11%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RDN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RDN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.78
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RDN is currently trading at $39.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.88 to $38.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.89, while resistance sits at $41.05.
Market Sentiment: RDN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.00 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RDN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.89, while resistance sits at $41.05.
Market Sentiment: RDN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.00 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$34.88 -
$38.05
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($45.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.1% growth with 58.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.88 -
$38.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.89
Resistance Level
$41.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.17
Wall Street Target
$45.00
(+14.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
58.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Profit Margin
41.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.81
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$40.25
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$40.69
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.17
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 3.7%)
$128.66
(+227%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 3.7%)
$43.90
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 3.7%)
$37.32
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.45
Bull Case
$53.15
(+35%)
Analyst growth 23.4%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$48.32
(+23%)
Market implied 23.4%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$26.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 19, 2026 12:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
15000 shares
2026-04-23
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
13009 shares
2026-04-17
Edward J Hoffman
SELL
1991 shares
2026-04-10
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