REFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REFI - Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Common Stock
$10.78
0.17 (1.60%)
▲
5d:
+6.21%
30d:
+6.94%
90d:
-5.52%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: REFI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: REFI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.57
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.64
26.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REFI is currently trading at $10.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.96 to $10.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.0) compared to its historical average (6.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.12 (+40.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.12 (+40.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.96 -
$10.52
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.3% below Wall St target ($15.12)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.96 -
$10.52
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.05
Resistance Level
$10.93
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.97
Wall Street Target
$15.13
(+40.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.1%
Profit Margin
60.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 6.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.37
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$9.98
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$9.60
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$10.78
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 36.4%)
$91.93
(+753%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: 36.4%)
$27.33
(+154%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: 36.4%)
$23.23
(+116%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.37
Bull Case
$15.39
(+43%)
Analyst growth 31.9%, PE expands to 8.5
Base Case
$13.99
(+30%)
Market implied 31.9%, PE stable at 7.7
Bear Case
$7.21
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 6.7
Stabilization Target:
$12.10
(+12.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 9:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is REFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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