REFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REFI - Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Common Stock
$9.90
0.14 (1.43%)
▲
5d:
-1.59%
30d:
-7.3%
90d:
-17.57%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: REFI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: REFI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.05
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.21
11.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REFI is currently trading at $9.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.07 to $10.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.3) compared to its historical average (6.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.38 (+65.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.38 (+65.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.07 -
$10.90
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 65.4% below Wall St target ($16.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.07 -
$10.90
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.69
Resistance Level
$10.48
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.32
Wall Street Target
$16.38
(+65.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-34.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.1%
Profit Margin
61.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.3 vs 6.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.14
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$8.43
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$7.78
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$9.95
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.8%)
$52.51
(+430%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.3, Growth: 10.8%)
$13.48
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: 10.8%)
$11.46
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$13.87
(+40%)
Analyst growth 29.2%, PE expands to 7.5
Base Case
$12.61
(+27%)
Market implied 29.2%, PE stable at 6.8
Bear Case
$6.64
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.3 to 6.8
Stabilization Target:
$12.65
(+27.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 4:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is REFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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