REFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REFI - Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Common Stock
$10.75
0.02 (0.19%)
▲
5d:
+0.19%
30d:
-4.95%
90d:
-7.25%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: REFI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: REFI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.32
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.37
5.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REFI is currently trading at $10.75, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.74 to $11.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.8) compared to its historical average (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.38 (+52.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.38 (+52.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$10.74 -
$11.28
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 52.3% below Wall St target ($16.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.74 -
$11.28
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.03
Resistance Level
$11.54
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.78
Wall Street Target
$16.38
(+52.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-34.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.1%
Profit Margin
61.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 6.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.15
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$9.58
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$9.04
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$10.80
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.8%)
$55.17
(+413%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 10.8%)
$14.64
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 10.8%)
$12.44
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$15.25
(+42%)
Analyst growth 29.2%, PE expands to 8.2
Base Case
$13.86
(+29%)
Market implied 29.2%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$7.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$12.83
(+19.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 11:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is REFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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