RGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RGR - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.
$37.17
-1.89 (-4.84%)
▼
5d:
-2.77%
30d:
-1.2%
90d:
-14.32%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RGR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RGR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.52
20.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RGR is currently trading at $37.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.77 to $38.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.4) is in line with its historical norms (19.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: RGR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+15.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: RGR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+15.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$37.77 -
$38.65
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.77 -
$38.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.96
(5.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.79
Resistance Level
$40.69
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.36
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(+15.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.3%
Profit Margin
-2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 19.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.76
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$36.36
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$35.96
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$37.22
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 27.0%)
$85.90
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 27.0%)
$76.07
(+105%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 27.0%)
$64.66
(+74%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.4 to 19.0
Stabilization Target:
$38.48
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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