Sturm, Ruger & (RGR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RGR - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.
$44.37
0.66 (1.51%)
▲
5d:
+3.64%
30d:
+16.82%
90d:
+17.23%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RGR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RGR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.52
4.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RGR is currently trading at $44.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.36 to $41.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.6) compared to its historical average (19.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGR is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $44.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RGR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGR is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $44.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RGR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$37.36 -
$41.89
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
37.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.9% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.3% growth with 19.3% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.36 -
$41.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.41
(3.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.80
Resistance Level
$44.48
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.59
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(-1.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.3%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
21.6 vs 19.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.59
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$47.55
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$49.59
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.65
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.6, Growth: 27.0%)
$89.45
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 27.0%)
$84.54
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 27.0%)
$71.86
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 8.61 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.07
Bull Case
$52.78
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$43.71
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case
$33.44
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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