Sturm, Ruger & (RGR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RGR - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.
$37.72
0.13 (0.35%)
â˛
5d:
+1.34%
30d:
+0.48%
90d:
-4.02%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RGR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RGR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.53
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.28
18.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RGR is currently trading at $37.72, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.40 to $38.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (18.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+14.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+14.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.40 -
$38.42
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.40 -
$38.42
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$1.99
(5.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.99
Resistance Level
$39.36
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.63
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(+14.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.3%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 18.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.53
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$37.34
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$37.16
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19â19)
$37.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 27.0%)
$83.58
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 27.0%)
$77.19
(+105%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 27.0%)
$65.61
(+74%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 8.61 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.38
Bull Case
$45.55
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$37.72
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case
$28.86
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 18.9
Stabilization Target:
$38.27
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 1:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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