RIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RIO - Rio Tinto plc
$103.27
0.43 (0.42%)
â˛
5d:
-0.03%
30d:
+3.63%
90d:
+2.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When RIO Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RIO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RIO is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$97.91
Based on -0.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $103.27, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.31 to $104.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $101.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RIO scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $101.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RIO scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$96.31 -
$104.09
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
39.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($104.09)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.31 -
$104.09
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$101.76
Resistance Level
$106.84
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.94
Wall Street Target
$104.09
(+0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.9%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.92
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$106.60
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$108.31
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$103.42
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -4.2%)
$174.77
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: -4.2%)
$103.14
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: -4.2%)
$87.67
(-15%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.38
Bull Case
$132.59
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.2%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$120.54
(+17%)
Market implied 17.2%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$69.93
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 05, 2026 8:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:27 AM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Other Industrial Metals & Mining Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Other Industrial Metals & Mining by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TECK
Teck Resources Ltd ClassâĻ |
STRONG BUY
23 analysts |
$53 | 48 HOLD |
|
VALE
Vale SA ADR |
BUY
26 analysts |
$17 | 35 SELL |
|
LAC
Lithium Americas Corp |
HOLD
15 analysts |
$6 | 53 HOLD |
|
WRN
Western Copper and Gold âĻ |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$6 | 35 SELL |
|
LAR
Lithium Argentina AG |
BUY
10 analysts |
$12 | 59 HOLD |
