RUN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RUN - Sunrun Inc
$13.62
0.10 (0.74%)
▲
5d:
+5.66%
30d:
-0.51%
90d:
+11.46%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RUN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RUN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.70
Based on -13.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RUN is currently trading at $13.62, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.74 to $15.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.0) compared to its historical average (25.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 214.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.11 (+40.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.11 (+40.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$12.74 -
$15.14
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.3% below Wall St target ($19.11)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.74 -
$15.14
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.70
Resistance Level
$13.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.97
Wall Street Target
$19.11
(+40.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
43.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
214.4%
Profit Margin
17.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 25.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.26
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.03
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.93
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→26)
$15.97
(+17%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -31.3%)
$13.54
(+-1%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: -31.3%)
$9.93
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: -31.3%)
$8.44
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.13
Bull Case
$7.51
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 7.1
Base Case
$6.83
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 6.4
Bear Case
$9.29
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.0 to 25.7
Stabilization Target:
$21.91
(+60.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+60.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RUN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maria Barak
SELL
8039 shares
2026-04-09
Danny Abajian
SELL
132953 shares
2026-04-06
Jeanna Steele
SELL
76478 shares
2026-04-06
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