RUN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RUN - Sunrun Inc
$9.81
0.29 (3.05%)
▲
5d:
-1.31%
30d:
-25.17%
90d:
-22.94%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
2d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RUN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 25.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RUN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 25.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.60
Based on -5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.93
10.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RUN is currently trading at $9.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.56 to $13.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.7) compared to its historical average (23.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 25.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 214.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.31, while resistance sits at $11.93. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.84 (+92.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.31, while resistance sits at $11.93. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.84 (+92.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.56 -
$13.39
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 92.1% below Wall St target ($18.84)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.56 -
$13.39
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.31
Resistance Level
$11.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.73
Wall Street Target
$18.84
(+92.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
43.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
214.4%
Profit Margin
17.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-25.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 23.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-25.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.83
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.95
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.15
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→24)
$17.49
(+78%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -15.5%)
$15.23
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: -15.5%)
$7.15
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: -15.5%)
$6.08
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.13
Bull Case
$5.24
(-47%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 4.9
Base Case
$4.76
(-52%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 4.5
Bear Case
$6.47
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 23.8
Stabilization Target:
$23.99
(+144.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+144.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 6:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RUN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
18
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maria Barak
SELL
8039 shares
2026-04-09
Danny Abajian
SELL
132953 shares
2026-04-06
Jeanna Steele
SELL
76478 shares
2026-04-06
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