RUN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RUN - Sunrun Inc
$12.47
0.01 (0.08%)
▲
5d:
-2.12%
30d:
-1.03%
90d:
-6.45%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
22d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RUN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RUN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.63
Based on -13.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RUN is currently trading at $12.47, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.30 to $14.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.6) compared to its historical average (24.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 214.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.26, while resistance sits at $14.35.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.00 (+52.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.26, while resistance sits at $14.35.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.00 (+52.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$12.30 -
$14.20
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RUN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 52.4% below Wall St target ($19.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.30 -
$14.20
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.26
Resistance Level
$14.35
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.63
Wall Street Target
$19.00
(+52.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
43.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
214.4%
Profit Margin
17.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 24.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.22
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.10
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.09
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→25)
$15.41
(+24%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -31.3%)
$13.54
(+9%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: -31.3%)
$9.09
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: -31.3%)
$7.73
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.21
Bull Case
$6.85
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 6.2
Base Case
$6.23
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 5.6
Bear Case
$8.47
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 24.8
Stabilization Target:
$21.14
(+69.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+69.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RUN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maria Barak
SELL
8039 shares
2026-04-09
Danny Abajian
SELL
132953 shares
2026-04-06
Jeanna Steele
SELL
76478 shares
2026-04-06
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