SAM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAM - Boston Beer Company
$183.46
0.26 (0.14%)
▲
5d:
-0.08%
30d:
-0.09%
90d:
-14.39%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SAM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SAM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$321.13
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$199.40
8.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAM is currently trading at $183.46, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $174.05 to $184.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.4) is in line with its historical norms (18.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $165.10, while resistance sits at $190.53.
Market Sentiment: SAM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $165.10, while resistance sits at $190.53.
Market Sentiment: SAM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$174.05 -
$184.96
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($201.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$174.05 -
$184.96
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$9.99
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$165.10
Resistance Level
$190.53
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.35
Wall Street Target
$201.00
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Profit Margin
-3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 18.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$178.62
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$174.15
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$169.80
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$183.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 16.6%)
$346.90
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 16.6%)
$290.27
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 16.6%)
$246.73
(+35%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.3 to 18.7
Stabilization Target:
$197.50
(+7.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SAM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SAM price and gamma walls.
