SAM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAM - Boston Beer Company
$172.39
-4.40 (-2.49%)
▼
5d:
-4.13%
30d:
-2.52%
90d:
-32.98%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
8d
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1 traders called SAM this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SAM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.0% annual earnings decline despite 49% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SAM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.0% annual earnings decline despite 49% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$332.73
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$206.60
16.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAM is currently trading at $172.39, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $171.55 to $183.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.6) compared to its historical average (18.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 48.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $158.68, while resistance sits at $187.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $228.01 (+32.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $158.68, while resistance sits at $187.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $228.01 (+32.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$171.55 -
$183.77
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.3% below Wall St target ($228.01)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$171.55 -
$183.77
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$158.68
Resistance Level
$187.99
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.64
Wall Street Target
$228.01
(+32.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.6%
Profit Margin
-3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 18.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$162.05
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$152.32
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$143.18
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→19)
$173.00
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.8%)
$372.63
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 15.8%)
$267.63
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 15.8%)
$227.48
(+32%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 18.9
Stabilization Target:
$208.29
(+20.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 9:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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