SJM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SJM - The J.M. Smucker Company

CANNED, FRUITS, VEG, PRESERVES, JAMS & JELLIES
$124.32
1.27 (1.03%) ▲
5d: +2.41%
30d: +7.44%
90d: +21.99%
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LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 26, 2026 1d
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $120.16 · last confirmed Aug 18, 2026

Strength: 4.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SJM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.13
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.00
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SJM is currently trading at $124.32, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $113.84 to $122.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $124.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $113.84 - $122.44
Company Quality Score 46/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 49.5%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($126.06)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.7% growth with 5.8% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $113.84 - $122.44
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $115.82
Resistance Level $124.79
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.46
Wall Street Target $126.06 (+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -2.6%
Profit Margin -1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History +2.7% premium
PE vs Historical 13.5 vs 12.4 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +2.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $121.01 (+3%)
2-Year Target $124.28 (+6%)
3-Year Target $127.63 (+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 13→12) PE COMPRESSION $117.59 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: -3.0%) $160.78 (+37%)
Base: (SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: -3.0%) $107.61 (-9%)
Bear: (PE: 11.4, Growth: -3.0%) $91.47 (-22%)
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Last updated: August 24, 2026 7:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:57 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced SJM Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SJM price and gamma walls.

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