SJM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SJM - The J.M. Smucker Company
$110.47
3.28 (3.06%)
▲
5d:
-4.72%
30d:
+8.4%
90d:
+12.29%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 09, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SJM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SJM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.23
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SJM is currently trading at $110.47, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $100.57 to $112.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $99.42, while resistance sits at $115.23. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $121.59 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $99.42, while resistance sits at $115.23. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $121.59 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$100.57 -
$112.56
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($121.59)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.0% growth with 5.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$100.57 -
$112.56
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$99.42
Resistance Level
$115.23
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.62
Wall Street Target
$121.59
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Profit Margin
-1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$111.57
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$112.69
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$113.82
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$110.94
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -3.0%)
$174.14
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: -3.0%)
$100.89
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: -3.0%)
$85.76
(-22%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 8:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SJM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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Advanced SJM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SJM price and gamma walls.
