SM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SM - SM Energy Company
$27.69
0.13 (0.47%)
▲
5d:
-2.74%
30d:
-16.72%
90d:
-4.68%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -12.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -12.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.34
Based on 2.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.39
5.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SM is currently trading at $27.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.18 to $33.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.5) compared to its historical average (5.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.79 (+48.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.79 (+48.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$29.18 -
$33.74
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.0% below Wall St target ($40.79)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.18 -
$33.74
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.06
Resistance Level
$34.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.50
Wall Street Target
$40.79
(+48.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
73.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.3%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.5 vs 5.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.80
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$22.32
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$20.09
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$29.84
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 1.9%)
$181.59
(+559%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.5, Growth: 1.9%)
$29.19
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.0, Growth: 1.9%)
$24.81
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.37
Bull Case
$59.71
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$54.28
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$18.46
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.5 to 5.2
Stabilization Target:
$40.94
(+48.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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