Is SM stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, SM is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of SM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for SM to be between $29.80 and $34.51. The current price is $37.20.

What is the analyst price target for SM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for SM is $40.60. This implies a potential upside of 9.1% from current levels.

SM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

SM - SM Energy Company

CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS

$37.20

-0.44 (-1.17%) ▼

5d: +10.22%

30d: +11.01%

90d: +11.88%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your SM Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 05, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 10, 2026 at $31.76 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026

Strength: 7.6/10

Get Alerted When SM Hits Your Target Price

Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move

You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.

100% Free No spam, ever Unsubscribe anytime

Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

Loading historical data...

💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 3.7%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$44.08

Based on 3.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$27.37

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SM is currently trading at $37.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.80 to $34.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.0) is in line with its historical norms (4.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: SM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $29.80 - $34.51

Company Quality Score 38/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 20.0%

Protect Your Profits

Holding SM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.8% above its trading range)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.60)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $29.80 - $34.51

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $29.63

Resistance Level $38.25

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 5.00

Wall Street Target $40.60 (+9.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 176.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 153.9%

Profit Margin 20.2%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.6% premium

PE vs Historical 5.0 vs 4.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $37.42 (+1%)

2-Year Target $37.65 (+1%)

3-Year Target $37.87 (+2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 5→5) PE COMPRESSION $37.15 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 3.7%) $166.79 (+348%)

Base: (SPY PE: 5.0, Growth: 3.7%) $41.51 (+12%)

Bear: (PE: 4.2, Growth: 3.7%) $35.28 (-5%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 6.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.88

Bull Case $52.44 (+41%)

Analyst growth 26.7%, PE expands to 7.0

Base Case $47.67 (+28%)

Market implied 26.7%, PE stable at 6.4

Bear Case $25.60 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

Share & Embed Analysis

Found this analysis useful? Share it with your community or embed the live chart on your blog.

Tweet Reddit

bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.

Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 AM

🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now

Ticker	Score	Recommendation	Change %

See Full Scanner Results »

Technical Signals Check

Is SM showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

NEUTRAL

View Insider Activity Scanner

Unlock Insider Activity

See real-time buying/selling by company executives for SM.

Create Free Account

Already have an account? Log In

Top Rated Oil & Gas E&P Stocks

Top-rated stocks in Oil & Gas E&P by analyst ratings.

Stock	Analyst Consensus	Analyst Target	Tradestie Score
FANG Diamondback Energy Inc	STRONG BUY 31 analysts	$232	33 SELL
CTRA Coterra Energy Inc	STRONG BUY 26 analysts	$37	53 HOLD
EXE Expand Energy Corporation	STRONG BUY 27 analysts	$126	38 SELL
COP ConocoPhillips	BUY 27 analysts	$145	41 HOLD
DVN Devon Energy Corporation	STRONG BUY 27 analysts	$60	35 SELL

FANG Diamondback Energ…

33 SELL

CTRA Coterra Energy Inc

53 HOLD

EXE Expand Energy Cor…

38 SELL

COP ConocoPhillips

41 HOLD

DVN Devon Energy Corp…

35 SELL

Advanced SM Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SM price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for SM

SM Technical Chart SM Price Prediction SM Earnings Date SM Investment Advisor SM Fair Price Analyzer SM Options Advisor SM Options Chain SM Options Analysis SM Competitors

Compare SM with Peers

SM vs MTDR
Which one to buy?

SM vs RRC
Which one to buy?

SM vs AR
Which one to buy?

SM vs CRK
Which one to buy?

SM vs MUR
Which one to buy?

SM vs AR
Winner: Tie

PR vs SM

OVV vs SM
Winner: SM

Create New Comparison View All Competitors

Tradestie