SMSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMSI - Smith Micro Software Inc
$2.84
-0.20 (-6.58%)
▼
5d:
-1.39%
30d:
+260.36%
90d:
+227.19%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMSI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMSI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.32
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.31
14.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMSI is currently trading at $2.84, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $0.72 to $3.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.8) compared to its historical average (3.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMSI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $0.78, while resistance sits at $4.31. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.25 (+472.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMSI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $0.78, while resistance sits at $4.31. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.25 (+472.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$0.72 -
$3.30
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 472.2% below Wall St target ($16.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$0.72 -
$3.30
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$0.78
Resistance Level
$4.31
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.84
Wall Street Target
$16.25
(+472.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-84.0%
Profit Margin
-165.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.8 vs 3.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.57
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.32
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$2.10
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→4)
$2.81
(-1%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.8 to 3.8
Stabilization Target:
$3.80
(+33.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 9:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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