SMTC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMTC - Semtech Corp
$156.26
-7.02 (-4.30%)
▼
5d:
-3.3%
30d:
-0.33%
90d:
+100.46%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 26, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMTC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 16.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMTC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 16.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMTC is currently trading at $156.26, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $146.96 to $167.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 74.7) compared to its historical average (46.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 16.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $148.90, while resistance sits at $177.35. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.83 (+25.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $148.90, while resistance sits at $177.35. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.83 (+25.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$146.96 -
$167.88
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.4% below Wall St target ($204.83)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 16.9% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$146.96 -
$167.88
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$148.90
Resistance Level
$177.35
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
74.74
Wall Street Target
$204.83
(+25.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
-3.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+16.9% premium
PE vs Historical
74.7 vs 46.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+16.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$190.87
(+17%)
2-Year Target
$223.13
(+37%)
3-Year Target
$260.84
(+60%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 75→47)
PE COMPRESSION
$163.33
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 74.7, Growth: 28.9%)
$349.70
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 28.9%)
$101.90
(-38%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 28.9%)
$86.62
(-47%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 3:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
17
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Paul V Walsh Jr
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-22
Hong Q Hou
SELL
2000 shares
2026-04-10
Martin Burvill
SELL
2500 shares
2026-04-09
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Advanced SMTC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMTC price and gamma walls.
