SRCE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SRCE - 1st Source Corp
$81.74
0.30 (0.37%)
▲
5d:
-0.74%
30d:
+5.36%
90d:
+10.64%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SRCE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SRCE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.42
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SRCE is currently trading at $81.74, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.18 to $81.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$77.18 -
$81.89
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($80.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.18 -
$81.89
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.19
Resistance Level
$78.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.63
Wall Street Target
$80.33
(-1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
37.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.85
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$88.07
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$91.42
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$81.73
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.3%)
$168.62
(+106%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 3.3%)
$90.06
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 3.3%)
$76.55
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.52
Bull Case
$96.55
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.8%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$87.77
(+7%)
Market implied 7.8%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$55.38
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 7:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SRCE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Melody Birmingham
BUY
51 shares
2026-02-13
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