SRCE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SRCE - 1st Source Corp
$90.51
0.77 (0.86%)
▲
5d:
+4.29%
30d:
+10.26%
90d:
+22.54%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SRCE trades at premium valuation expecting 5.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: SRCE trades at premium valuation expecting 5.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.46
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.17
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SRCE is currently trading at $90.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.92 to $87.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.2) compared to its historical average (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $91.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SRCE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $91.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SRCE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$80.92 -
$87.41
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($89.67)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.2% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.92 -
$87.41
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.56
Resistance Level
$91.46
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.24
Wall Street Target
$89.67
(-0.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.3%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.2% premium
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 10.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.22
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$100.17
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$105.38
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$90.42
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 2.2%)
$163.51
(+81%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 2.2%)
$96.52
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 2.2%)
$82.04
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.97
Bull Case
$104.76
(+16%)
Analyst growth 6.1%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$95.23
(+5%)
Market implied 6.1%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$61.02
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 2:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SRCE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Melody Birmingham
BUY
51 shares
2026-02-13
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