STZ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STZ - Constellation Brands, Inc.
$135.66
1.52 (1.13%)
▲
5d:
-2.53%
30d:
+4.94%
90d:
-10.06%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $130.81 · last confirmed Aug 18, 2026
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STZ shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite extended pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STZ shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite extended pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$185.91
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$115.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STZ is currently trading at $135.66, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $130.38 to $134.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 30.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STZ scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.83 (+30.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STZ scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.83 (+30.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$130.38 -
$134.96
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.8% below Wall St target ($170.83)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$130.38 -
$134.96
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$129.44
Resistance Level
$139.26
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.56
Wall Street Target
$170.83
(+30.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.7%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 11.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$126.12
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$121.83
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$117.69
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$130.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 6.3%)
$298.28
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 6.3%)
$156.64
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 6.3%)
$133.14
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.49
Bull Case
$180.43
(+33%)
Analyst growth 17.9%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$164.03
(+21%)
Market implied 17.9%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$94.64
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 11.7
Stabilization Target:
$144.65
(+10.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 5:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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Advanced STZ Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's STZ price and gamma walls.
