SWBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWBI - Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Common Stock
$14.55
-0.40 (-2.68%)
▼
5d:
-0.61%
30d:
-3.0%
90d:
-6.37%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
30d
Get Alerted When SWBI Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SWBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SWBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.80
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWBI is currently trading at $14.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.71 to $15.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 44.1) is in line with its historical norms (40.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SWBI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.25 (+18.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SWBI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.25 (+18.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.71 -
$15.44
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
31th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SWBI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.71 -
$15.44
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.76
(5.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.40
Resistance Level
$15.31
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
44.09
Wall Street Target
$17.25
(+18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.7%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
44.1 vs 40.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.93
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$15.32
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$15.71
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→41)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.54
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 44.1, Growth: 17.9%)
$23.82
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 17.9%)
$11.20
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 17.9%)
$9.52
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 35.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.42
Bull Case
$12.92
(-11%)
Analyst growth -21.4%, PE expands to 39.2
Base Case
$11.75
(-19%)
Market implied -21.4%, PE stable at 35.6
Bear Case
$10.17
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is SWBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Aerospace & Defense Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Aerospace & Defense by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
BA
The Boeing Company |
STRONG BUY
27 analysts |
$271 | 60 HOLD |
|
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$313 | 53 HOLD |
|
TDG
Transdigm Group Incorpor… |
STRONG BUY
23 analysts |
$1512 | 58 HOLD |
|
GE
GE Aerospace |
STRONG BUY
20 analysts |
$405 | 63 BUY |
|
RTX
RTX Corporation |
BUY
24 analysts |
$230 | 57 HOLD |
Advanced SWBI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SWBI price and gamma walls.
