SWBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWBI - Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Common Stock
$16.78
0.33 (2.01%)
▲
5d:
+16.93%
30d:
+9.6%
90d:
+16.37%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 17, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SWBI is 7.5% above its trading range ($15.61). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SWBI is 7.5% above its trading range ($15.61). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.80
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWBI is currently trading at $16.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.47 to $15.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 49.9) compared to its historical average (39.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SWBI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SWBI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.47 -
$15.61
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SWBI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.25)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.8% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.47 -
$15.61
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.53
Resistance Level
$15.66
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
49.85
Wall Street Target
$17.25
(+4.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.7%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.8% premium
PE vs Historical
49.9 vs 39.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.73
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$19.12
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$20.61
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 50→40)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.45
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 49.8, Growth: 17.9%)
$26.93
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.9%)
$11.77
(-29%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.9%)
$10.00
(-39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 39.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.41
Bull Case
$14.24
(-14%)
Analyst growth -19.5%, PE expands to 43.1
Base Case
$12.94
(-21%)
Market implied -19.5%, PE stable at 39.2
Bear Case
$10.93
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 1:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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