SWBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWBI - Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Common Stock
$14.10
0.19 (1.37%)
▲
5d:
-1.61%
30d:
-2.29%
90d:
-7.9%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SWBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SWBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.80
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWBI is currently trading at $14.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.20 to $14.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 42.1) is in line with its historical norms (41.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $13.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.25 (+24.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $13.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.25 (+24.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.20 -
$14.91
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
39th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SWBI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 39th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.0% below Wall St target ($17.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (51/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.20 -
$14.91
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.02
(7.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.87
Resistance Level
$14.42
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.15
Wall Street Target
$17.25
(+24.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.7%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
42.2 vs 41.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.04
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$14.16
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$14.29
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→41)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.93
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.2, Growth: 17.9%)
$22.77
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 17.9%)
$10.84
(-22%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 17.9%)
$9.22
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 34.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.41
Bull Case
$12.50
(-11%)
Analyst growth -19.5%, PE expands to 37.9
Base Case
$11.36
(-19%)
Market implied -19.5%, PE stable at 34.4
Bear Case
$9.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SWBI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SWBI price and gamma walls.
