Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWBI - Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Common Stock
$14.64
0.23 (1.60%)
▲
5d:
+2.66%
30d:
+14.55%
90d:
-4.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SWBI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SWBI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.80
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWBI is currently trading at $14.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.89 to $14.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 43.7) is in line with its historical norms (41.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SWBI scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.25 (+19.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SWBI scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (19th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.25 (+19.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.89 -
$14.04
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
19th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SWBI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 19th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.89 -
$14.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.73
(5.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.57
Resistance Level
$14.75
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.67
Wall Street Target
$17.25
(+19.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.7%
Profit Margin
4.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
43.7 vs 41.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.71
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$15.02
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$15.34
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→41)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.40
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.7, Growth: 17.9%)
$23.59
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 17.9%)
$11.02
(-24%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 17.9%)
$9.37
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 25.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.55
Bull Case
$9.28
(-36%)
Analyst growth -40.0%, PE expands to 28.1
Base Case
$8.44
(-42%)
Market implied -40.0%, PE stable at 25.6
Bear Case
$9.56
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SWBI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SWBI price and gamma walls.
