SWBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWBI - Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Common Stock
$15.66
0.06 (0.42%)
▲
5d:
+1.95%
30d:
+9.66%
90d:
+9.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
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1 traders called SWBI this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SWBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SWBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.80
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWBI is currently trading at $15.66, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.48 to $15.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 47.5) compared to its historical average (40.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SWBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.25 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.66. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SWBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.25 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$14.48 -
$15.88
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
45th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 45th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.25)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.5% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.48 -
$15.88
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.04
(6.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.53
Resistance Level
$15.66
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
47.45
Wall Street Target
$17.25
(+10.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.7%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
47.5 vs 40.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.52
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$17.43
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$18.39
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 47→41)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.69
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 47.5, Growth: 17.9%)
$25.64
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.9%)
$11.77
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.9%)
$10.00
(-36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 38.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.41
Bull Case
$13.81
(-12%)
Analyst growth -19.5%, PE expands to 41.8
Base Case
$12.55
(-20%)
Market implied -19.5%, PE stable at 38.0
Bear Case
$10.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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