What is the fair value of TCOM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TCOM to be between $43.46 and $46.56. The current price is $46.11.

What is the analyst price target for TCOM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TCOM is $60.38. This implies a potential upside of 29.8% from current levels.

TCOM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TCOM - Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares

Services-Business Services, NEC

$46.11

-0.32 (-0.69%) ▼

5d: +2.51%

30d: +7.18%

90d: -4.06%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 26, 2026 2d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 11, 2026 at $46.30 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026

Strength: 5.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: TCOM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 17.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$79.93

Based on 10.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$49.63

7.1% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TCOM is currently trading at $46.11, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.46 to $46.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.6) is in line with its historical norms (1.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $47.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.38 (+29.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $43.46 - $46.56

Company Quality Score 45/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 65.2%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 29.8% below Wall St target ($60.38)
WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $43.46 - $46.56

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $44.25

Resistance Level $47.16

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 1.63

Wall Street Target $60.38 (+29.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 17.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -39.7%

Profit Margin 48.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 1.6 vs 1.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $46.04 (-1%)

2-Year Target $45.58 (-2%)

3-Year Target $45.13 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 2→2) $47.07 (+1%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 17.2%) $921.35 (+1881%)

Base: (SPY PE: 1.6, Growth: 17.2%) $74.82 (+61%)

Bear: (PE: 1.4, Growth: 17.2%) $63.60 (+37%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 6.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.66

Bull Case $98.01 (+113%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 7.4

Base Case $89.10 (+93%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 6.7

Bear Case $30.29 (-34%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.6 to 1.7

Stabilization Target: $48.51 (+4.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +4.3%

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced TCOM Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TCOM price and gamma walls.

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Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares

Services-Business Services, NEC

About

Trip.com is the largest online travel agent in China and is positioned to benefit from the country's rising demand for higher-margin outbound travel as passport penetration is only 12% in China. The company generated about 79% of sales from accommodation reservations and transportation ticketing in 2024. The rest of revenue comes from package tours and corporate travel. Before the pandemic in 2019, the company generated 25% of revenue from international travel, which is important to its margin expansion. Most of sales come from its domestic platform, but the company is expanding its overseas business. The competes in a crowded OTA industry in China, including Meituan, Alibaba-backed Fliggy, Tongcheng, and Qunar. The company was founded in 1999 and listed on the Nasdaq in December 2003.

Exchange: XNAS

Market Cap: $48,981,041,194

Employees: 41,073

Listed Since: 2003-12-09

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001269238

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