TCOM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCOM - Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares
$45.10
-1.63 (-3.48%)
▼
5d:
-4.83%
30d:
-7.87%
90d:
-12.82%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 24, 2026
5d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TCOM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TCOM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.84
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.44
12.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCOM is currently trading at $45.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.46 to $49.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.4) compared to its historical average (1.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 98.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: TCOM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $76.99 (+70.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: TCOM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $76.99 (+70.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$46.46 -
$49.92
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TCOM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 70.7% below Wall St target ($76.99)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.46 -
$49.92
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.30
Resistance Level
$49.34
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.42
Wall Street Target
$76.99
(+70.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
98.1%
Profit Margin
53.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 1.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.17
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$39.43
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$36.86
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$44.22
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.9%)
$1023.80
(+2170%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: 13.9%)
$66.61
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 13.9%)
$56.62
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.04
Bull Case
$101.71
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 7.2
Base Case
$92.46
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 6.6
Bear Case
$31.44
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 1.7
Stabilization Target:
$54.10
(+20.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 18, 2026 5:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCOM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TCOM price and gamma walls.