TFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFIN - Triumph Financial, Inc.
$68.30
-3.86 (-5.35%)
▼
5d:
-2.66%
30d:
+3.99%
90d:
+11.02%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$127.67
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.28
13.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFIN is currently trading at $68.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.32 to $69.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.0) compared to its historical average (29.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 531.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $61.64, while resistance sits at $72.44. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFIN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $61.64, while resistance sits at $72.44. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$64.32 -
$69.70
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($68.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.32 -
$69.70
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.64
Resistance Level
$72.45
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.04
Wall Street Target
$68.80
(+0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
531.5%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.0 vs 29.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.64
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$63.08
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$60.62
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→29)
$68.43
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.0, Growth: 50.3%)
$230.51
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 50.3%)
$193.92
(+184%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 50.3%)
$164.84
(+141%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 10.55 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.69
Bull Case
$85.19
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 11.1
Base Case
$70.55
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$53.97
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.0 to 29.4
Stabilization Target:
$77.10
(+12.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 7:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Adam D Nelson
SELL
3000 shares
2025-12-18
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