TM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TM - Toyota Motor Corporation American Depositary Shares (Each representing ten Ordinary Shares)
$186.17
-2.82 (-1.49%)
▼
5d:
+2.21%
30d:
+6.63%
90d:
-1.35%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$351.27
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$218.11
14.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TM is currently trading at $186.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $171.92 to $184.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $176.01, while resistance sits at $195.85.
Market Sentiment: TM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $231.58 (+24.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $176.01, while resistance sits at $195.85.
Market Sentiment: TM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $231.58 (+24.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$171.92 -
$184.77
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.4% below Wall St target ($231.58)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$171.92 -
$184.77
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$176.01
Resistance Level
$195.85
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.41
Wall Street Target
$231.58
(+24.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.2%
Profit Margin
7.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$179.84
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$173.73
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$167.82
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$185.59
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 18.8%)
$768.54
(+313%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 18.8%)
$311.78
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 18.8%)
$265.01
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.09
Bull Case
$254.40
(+37%)
Analyst growth 22.4%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$231.28
(+24%)
Market implied 22.4%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$128.51
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$205.88
(+10.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 9:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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