TM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TM - Toyota Motor Corporation American Depositary Shares (Each representing ten Ordinary Shares)
$197.35
5.11 (2.66%)
▲
5d:
+3.27%
30d:
+11.62%
90d:
+4.05%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$351.27
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$218.11
9.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TM is currently trading at $197.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $181.09 to $191.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 86.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $198.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $231.58 (+20.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $198.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $231.58 (+20.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$181.09 -
$191.76
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($231.58)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$181.09 -
$191.76
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$186.86
Resistance Level
$198.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.68
Wall Street Target
$231.58
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.9%
Profit Margin
8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$188.20
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$184.25
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$180.38
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$193.18
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 18.8%)
$744.07
(+287%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 18.8%)
$321.94
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 18.8%)
$273.65
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.13
Bull Case
$207.73
(+5%)
Analyst growth 0.0%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$188.84
(-4%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 8.5
Bear Case
$128.37
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$205.88
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 12:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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