TOUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOUR - Tuniu Corporation
$4.90
0.03 (0.62%)
▲
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
-4.85%
90d:
-21.85%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 25, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TOUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TOUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.40
33.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOUR is currently trading at $4.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.94 to $5.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.4) compared to its historical average (1.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TOUR scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.40 (+257.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOUR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TOUR scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.40 (+257.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.94 -
$5.18
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 257.2% below Wall St target ($17.40)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.94 -
$5.18
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.87
Resistance Level
$5.27
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.43
Wall Street Target
$17.40
(+257.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.5%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 1.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.52
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$4.19
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$3.89
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$4.89
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 41.7%)
$194.01
(+3884%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: 41.7%)
$13.85
(+184%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 41.7%)
$11.77
(+142%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.45
Bull Case
$10.89
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$9.90
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$3.37
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 1.8
Stabilization Target:
$6.12
(+25.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 7:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Yu Dunde
BUY
200 shares
2026-03-24
Anqiang Chen
BUY
280 shares
2026-03-23
Yu Dunde
BUY
2700 shares
2026-03-23
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