TPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPL - Texas Pacific Land Corporation
$383.64
14.08 (3.81%)
â˛
5d:
+7.01%
30d:
-9.85%
90d:
-3.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TPL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 11.6% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TPL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 11.6% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$335.58
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$208.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPL is currently trading at $383.64, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $360.36 to $414.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 39.0) compared to its historical average (28.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $335.10, while resistance sits at $396.78. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $442.00 (+18.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $335.10, while resistance sits at $396.78. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $442.00 (+18.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$360.36 -
$414.29
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
2th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 2th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($442.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 11.6% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$360.36 -
$414.29
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$22.70
(5.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$335.10
Resistance Level
$396.78
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
38.95
Wall Street Target
$442.00
(+18.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.7%
Profit Margin
60.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.6% premium
PE vs Historical
39.0 vs 28.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$416.47
(+12%)
2-Year Target
$464.78
(+25%)
3-Year Target
$518.69
(+39%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39â28)
PE COMPRESSION
$372.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.0, Growth: 10.0%)
$496.36
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.0%)
$255.73
(-32%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.0%)
$217.37
(-42%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (39x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.93
Bull Case
$485.51
(+27%)
Analyst growth 20.8%, PE expands to 50.7
Base Case
$441.38
(+15%)
Market implied 20.8%, PE stable at 46.1
Bear Case
$248.44
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 9:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Donna E Epps
BUY
895 shares
2026-02-25
Stephanie Buffington
SELL
1608 shares
2026-02-24
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